Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te returned home Friday after an almost weeklong — and politically sensitive — trip to Paraguay and the United States that experts view as a foreign policy success for the self-ruled island.
Although Lai’s political rivals criticized the low profile of his stopovers in New York and San Francisco, experts say the trip achieved its main goals: boosting the presidential candidate’s visibility at home and abroad while avoiding situations that could give Beijing an excuse to overreact.
While in the United States, the 63-year-old chairman of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party gave speeches to the Taiwanese community and met officials from the American Institute in Taiwan, Washington’s de facto embassy in Taipei.
But unlike in Paraguay, where he attended the inauguration of the country’s new president and met the leaders of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay, Lai is not known to have met any senior political figures during either of his U.S. stopovers.
This prompted claims by both Chinese media outlets and the local opposition Kuomintang (KMT) that Lai, who is the front-runner in January’s presidential election, was “snubbed” by Washington.
China has long been critical of Lai, who has identified himself as a "practical worker for Taiwan independence," a claim that has led Beijing to label him as a “separatist” and “troublemaker.”
Lai has clarified that his stance doesn't deviate from that of President Tsai Ing-wen, who argues that Taipei doesn’t need to formally declare independence, as Taiwan is already a de facto independent and sovereign nation.
However, Lai has also said that Taiwanese presidents should someday be able to visit the White House, something that is currently not possible as Washington has no official ties with Taipei.
The KMT, which has criticized Lai’s ability to manage Taiwan’s most important external relationship, used such remarks Thursday to claim that U.S. concerns about Lai’s independence-leaning posture are the main reason why he received a “record low reception” during the stopovers.
Lai hit back, insisting that the accusations are based on Chinese propaganda aimed at “driving a wedge between Taipei and Washington” and influencing the outcome of the upcoming election.
Experts also disagree with the accusations, pointing out that Washington’s reaction simply shows that it doesn't want to be seen as interfering in the island’s upcoming presidential election and endorsing Lai as a candidate.
Moreover, Washington did not want to give Beijing any reason to feel provoked and derail plans for a possible meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents in November, said Lu Yeh-chung, professor and vice dean at the College of International Affairs of Taiwan’s National Chengchi University.
Analysts also emphasized that Washington and Taipei had agreed on this agenda as the preferred way of handling Lai’s stopovers, arguing that the “uneventful nature” of the trip is actually a key factor for its success.
“The trip was a success in as much as voters back in Taiwan saw Lai welcomed in the U.S. without any major controversies to report,” said Sean King, a Taiwan expert and senior vice president with New York-based advisory firm Park Strategies.
Lai said nothing to alarm officials or observers while in the U.S., and his stopovers got generally favorable coverage on American television where he was portrayed as someone friendly to the United States, King added.
Chase Blazek, Asia-Pacific analyst at U.S.-based geopolitics and intelligence firm RANE, explains that by not meeting any high-level U.S. officials, Lai showed he had not come to the U.S. to “rock the boat and unnecessarily provoke China.”
Blazek explained that although visiting the U.S. has become standard procedure for both Taiwanese leaders and presidential candidates, Washington expects them to “not go out of their way to provoke China to action,” as it would make its job of helping preserve the peace much harder and risk worsening the already strained Sino-U.S. relations.
Ian Chong, an associate political science professor at the National University of Singapore, is of the view that the goals of the trip were modest, namely to show that Taiwan can engage effectively internationally and without any fuss, while boosting Lai’s visibility in the runup to the presidential election.
“These goals were achieved,” he said, noting that Lai was able to highlight that he can handle international exposure in a “measured, careful, and credible manner.”
Chong also pointed to two additional benefits: First, the images of a senior Taiwanese leader participating in an international event have helped normalize views of Taiwan and highlight that Taipei’s participation in these events is not destabilizing.
Second, the uneventful nature of the trip does not afford Beijing much of a pretext to respond with large-scale military exercises without making it look like an overreaction.
While China has yet to react militarily, it has levied anti-dumping duties of up to 22.4% on five Taiwanese firms exporting polycarbonate, a clear plastic used to make phone cases, drinks bottles and bulletproof glass.
RANE’s Blazek believes that these measures are meant to show the Taiwanese people that, though China is not threatening Taiwan with military force right now, Lai winning the election would herald four more years of tense economic relations with China.
Although there is still time for China to react with a significant military drill, analysts expect Beijing’s military response to be more restrained this time, as a Chinese overreaction could end up boosting Lai's chances of winning the election, working against Beijing’s interests.
“China is no stranger to shooting itself in the foot diplomatically, but for now it seems Beijing has chosen pragmatism and to fight another day (diplomatically speaking) for its sovereignty claims over Taiwan,” Blazek said.
And China will likely maintain this lighter response for the time being to preserve its ability to influence the Taiwan situation — via military, economic, and/or political tools — going forward, he added.
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