How will Yoon’s low approval ratings affect South Korea’s foreign policy?

Less than three months after taking office, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval ratings have plummeted to a new low of 28% amid growing concerns about the economy, controversy over personnel appointments and criticism of his handling of state affairs.

That’s created concern that Yoon’s domestic headwinds could have a knock-on effect on foreign policy: A lack of strong public support may hinder his vows to take a more confrontational approach toward North Korea, adopt a tougher line with China and improve ties with Japan.

According to a Gallup Korea poll released on July 29, 62% of respondents said they disapproved of the president’s performance, with 10% undecided. For comparison, former President Moon Jae-in's approval ratings only fell below 30% near the end of his five-year term.

Yoon’s ratings have been in steady decline since mid-June. A primary reason cited by respondents who said they disapproved of the president were issues regarding personnel appointments, with Yoon facing allegations of hiring relatives and acquaintances to the presidential office.

Other reasons cited were his lack of political experience and qualification as head of state, economic worries, the government's plans to set up a police oversight bureau under the interior ministry, neglect of people’s livelihoods, frictions within the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and insufficient communication with opposition parties.

“People expected the Yoon government to be different from that of his predecessor, as he stressed the importance of law and justice, as well as of communicating with those who disagree with its policies,” said Sangsoo Lee, head of the Stockholm Korea Center at the Institute for Security and Development Policy.

“However, South Koreans have been disappointed, particularly after several high-ranking officials — most of them close to the president — turned out to be involved in corruption scandals or other illegal acts. Liberal-minded citizens, especially the younger generations, are tired of this type of political appointments,” he said.

Foreign policy support

The conservative Yoon prevailed in March’s presidential election, eking out a minuscule margin of victory in a bitterly fought campaign, meaning that he has a weak governing foundation and faces a divided electorate.

But while the 61-year-old is struggling on the domestic front, his foreign policy objectives, which also include strengthening South Korea's defense capabilities and forging closer military and economic cooperation with the United States, seem to resonate with the South Korean population.

“Polls suggest that Yoon’s foreign policies are in sync with South Korean public opinion. Support for the U.S. is high, as is skepticism toward China. There also is skepticism toward North Korea’s will to denuclearize and understanding regarding the need for deterrence,” said Scott Snyder, director of the U.S.-Korea Policy program at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.

The Yoon administration has also taken initial steps to shore up ties with Tokyo, which have soured over wartime history and trade. In early July, South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong presided over the first meeting of a public-private body set up to help resolve wartime labor issues stemming from Japan’s 1910-45 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula.

Potential roadblocks

However, analysts point out that the alarming drop in the president’s approval ratings does not bode well for the future of his administration, particularly as Yoon’s minority PPP cannot push any important policies or reforms without the support of the opposition Democratic Party, which holds a solid majority in the National Assembly.

In the worst-case scenario, this could lead to a political paralysis, especially in terms of Yoon’s leadership on domestic issues and personnel appointments, which are already major areas of disappointment for the public, according to the polls.

“As the economy faces low growth and high inflation, people expect the government to be more focused on economic recovery than on international affairs,” Lee said. Yoon’s efforts to spur private sector-driven growth could hit a roadblock in the National Assembly, at least until the next parliamentary elections in 2024, he noted.

This, Lee argues, could also affect Seoul’s relations with Tokyo. “Yoon’s low approval ratings are likely to make implementation of his Japan policies more difficult as there is still anti-Japanese sentiment among the South Korean population, which the opposition party could utilize to intensify its criticism of the president’s policies."

Ellen Kim, deputy director of the Korea Chair at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), explains that, while Yoon is aware of the importance of improving ties with Japan, he still needs strong public support to push for a difficult foreign policy agenda. “If there is no meaningful progress in the current dialogue between Seoul and Tokyo, it is possible that Yoon’s low approval ratings could result in him becoming more cautious in his approach toward Japan,” Kim warned.

Generally speaking, low public approval is not a constraint on a president’s implementation of foreign policy, and it is likely that not all Yoon’s plans will face such difficulties. However, Seoul’s relations with Japan and North Korea are issues where there is a degree of domestic political polarization, Snyder explains.

“An unpopular president could find greater resistance to his policies on these issues, essentially due to his unpopularity. In other words, the main risk is that presidential foreign policy initiatives toward Japan might be opposed primarily because Yoon himself has become unpopular,” Snyder says.

That possibility is not without recent precedent: The impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye contributed, to some degree, to South Koreans’ disapproval of the 2015 “comfort women” deal she reached with Japan. “Comfort women” is a euphemism for the women who were forced or coerced into Japan’s wartime brothel system under various circumstances, including abduction, deception and poverty.

“The main challenge for an unpopular president is that he/she may no longer have sufficient political capital to win support for his/her leadership on issues that may encounter domestic resistance, or that his/her unpopularity could generate backlash against conciliatory measures that might otherwise not generate resistance if the president is popular,” Snyder noted.

What can Yoon do?

Experts warn that Yoon’s approval ratings could drop even further unless he takes concrete measures to improve governance and support the economy, pointing out that his domestic standing is key to implementing his policies.

“There is some anticipation from Seoul's allies and partners that the Yoon government will help South Korea leap into a bigger role on the international stage, including in areas such as the creation of more robust global supply chains,” said Soo Kim, a policy analyst and Korea expert at the Washington-based Rand Corporation.

“Yoon's progress on these more visible, high-profile issues, which are important investments into Seoul's long-term interests, is likely to be hampered should his domestic rating remain stagnant or worse, plunge even more.”

Analysts also say Yoon must master the learning curve inherent in the transition from prosecutor to president. “As a prosecutor, Yoon famously said that he would not show allegiance to people, but as president, Yoon’s fundamental allegiance must be to all the people regardless of gender or age and not to a like-minded in-group,” Snyder noted.

Beyond any one issue, Snyder added, disappointment with Yoon stems primarily from the perception that he is relying on opinions of like-minded elites that share his background rather than standing apart from politics and making fair-minded, just, and inclusive leadership decisions.

“Yoon’s pathway to success as president lies with showing his independence from politics and demonstrating that he has not been captured by his party or by a single set of vested interests,” Snyder added.

Rand analyst Kim has a similar view. Any new president, no matter how much political experience they might have, is bound to face challenges during the beginning of a term.

“I don't think the South Korean public is so impatient and unforgiving that their criticisms of and low confidence in Yoon are unjustified,” Kim said. “What's troublesome is that, rather than pursuing the appropriate course of action to address the public's grievances on personnel appointments, state management, and the economy, Yoon’s administration seems to continue on the course of ineffectiveness.

“This is probably what vexes the public the most and the underlying factor of his low approval ratings,” she said.