Trump’s wild week and a changing U.S. presidential race

This has been a wild week in U.S. politics.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was the target of an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13; the shooter only narrowly missed. On July 15, a Florida district court judge dismissed charges against Trump of obstructing justice, a ruling that was widely anticipated even though it is on questionable grounds. The remainder of the week, the Republican Party formally nominated Trump at its convention, at which he also named his vice-presidential running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance.

Following the Supreme Court’s surprising decision earlier this month on the immunity of presidents, these events have reinforced the idea of the “Teflon Don,” an extraordinarily lucky man for whom the laws of politics do not apply. When coupled with the dismal performance of U.S. President Joe Biden at their debate last month, they have also fed a narrative that Trump’s victory in November is inevitable.

That is incorrect. Much can happen between now and the election. Japan, like any other nation, must be prepared for a Trump win, but it is by no means assured even after the events of the past few weeks.

Trump escaped serious injury — and the United States a potential civil war — when he turned his head at the last instant as bullets fired at him from 120 meters away wounded him and killed an innocent man who was sheltering his family. The shooter was quickly killed by Secret Service snipers.

Almost everything about the shooter remains opaque, except for his name and the barest family details. Most importantly, his motivation is unknown.

We like to believe that our country is safe from such violence. That is not true, as recent events have shown. While the United States has unique conditions — the country is awash with guns and political rhetoric in recent years has been especially heated and dire — Japan is not immune to such dangers. Two years ago, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot and killed while campaigning in Nara. We cannot pretend that this threat is not real here too.

Two days after the Pennsylvania shooting, a federal district court judge dismissed what was considered the “easiest” of the cases against the former president, the one that challenged his handling of classified documents after leaving office. Taking cues from the concurring opinion written by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas in last month’s case about a president’s immunity from prosecution, Judge Aileen Cannon held the special prosecutor bringing the charges had no authority to do so.

While roundly criticized by most observers, the ruling was no surprise. Cannon, a Trump-appointed judge, has shown great favoritism toward the former president in her handling of a previous case — prompting a sharp and embarrassing rebuke from the appeals court — as well as throughout this trial.

The Thomas concurrence, on an issue that had not been briefed or argued before the court and was not relevant to the question decided, was an invitation and a blueprint for anyone who shared his thinking. Cannon accepted it, and in so doing, derailed a prosecution that was by all serious accounts straightforward and likely to end in conviction, putting another indelible stain on Trump’s record. This reversal fueled the sense — hazy, undefined but powerful nevertheless — that Trump is invincible and his return to the White House inevitable.

The ruling was a harbinger for the Republican National Convention, which began that same day. The faithful gathered in Milwaukee to officially nominate Trump as their candidate, hear him name his running mate, explain his agenda and show that the party was unified behind him.

The call for unity was for the nation, not just the GOP faithful. In the aftermath of the shooting, politicians from both sides of the aisle have tried to tamp down the enmity that dominates political discourse in the United States. That is good for the country and good politics.

Angry rhetoric may rally true believers but it risks antagonizing the many voters in the middle who will decide the upcoming election. The managers of the GOP convention recognize this and reportedly worked to tamp down the more extreme speeches of the meeting, with mixed success. One fiery speaker excused his failure to hew to the new, more conciliatory line by saying an old draft of his speech had been loaded into the teleprompter.

The selection of J.D. Vance as vice president is a nod to the faithful. He is all-in on the nationalist elements of the Trump agenda and has shown a readiness to go on the offensive against Trump’s political adversaries. After the shooting, he was quick to blame Democrats for being responsible even though there was no evidence to prove that assertion.

Traditionally, the vice-presidential candidate is the attack dog during the campaign; while Vance is well suited for this role, the tenacity with which he takes it up will tell whether the message of unity is real.

Even though it is premature to parse convention speeches for policy under a second Trump administration, the selection of Vance is important. It signals that he is heir apparent once Trump passes from the scene. The readiness to make that decision, long deferred to perpetuate Trump’s grip on the party, indicates that the momentum for the GOP is set and the party will continue to move in this direction regardless of Trump’s presence.

Trump's acceptance speech was a meandering spectacle, one of the longest in convention history. Despite the pre-convention call for a new mood and message, the address was very much his standard stump speech, with name-calling, grievances, untruths and warnings of dire outcomes if he lost.

Typically, candidates get a rise in approval after the party convention. In recent years, that bump has been smaller and the fall quicker. This year, the bounce may be even smaller.

First, the perceived momentum of the Trump candidacy and talk of his “inevitable” win has begun to shift media focus away from Biden’s age to the content of a second Trump administration. While the candidate himself prefers to be short on specifics and the 2024 platform reads like a series of bumper stickers, there are detailed proposals, such as Project 2025, that provide considerable detail of what could happen in the event of a Trump victory.

While Trump has tried to distance himself from these proposals, the role of his close advisers in their development suggests that they are not distinct from his campaign. Exposed to light, these plans often frighten or antagonize the independent voters who will determine the fact of this election.

Second, the last days of the GOP convention competed with news that pressure was mounting on President Biden to abandon his reelection bid. His poor performance in the debate against Trump convinced many of his supporters, including some of his closest allies, that he should step down to give the Democrats the best chance to win the November ballot. As we go to press, there are rumors of an imminent address.

A decision to step aside would throw the race, which in some polls remains within the margin of error, completely into turmoil. It adds yet more uncertainty into a campaign that has defied logic and common sense since it began.