The new prime minister puts together a ‘disunity Cabinet’

On Tuesday, the nation's newly minted prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, formed his first Cabinet, and like the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election he just won, the outcome was unexpected.

Normally, a first-time LDP leader seeks to establish a “unity” Cabinet filled with a mix of politicians representing different elements of the party. The obvious aim is to support consensus building within the party and to ensure that no one clique gains too much influence. And, a politician promising a modern style of leadership might seek a diverse group of appointees with a healthy mix of ages and genders.

That was not the case here.

Ishiba’s appointments reveal deep fissures within the party resulting from his victory in the leadership race. Of the eight candidates who lost to Ishiba, only three accepted leadership postings in the party and the government (although there is no confirmed number of how many actually had offers). Instead, Ishiba’s staunchest campaign allies were given positions that most closely align with his personal policy priorities. As for diversity, only four Cabinet ministers are younger than 60 and there are only two women among the 19 total appointees.

Ishiba may be seeking to use this Cabinet to advance his policy priorities, but he faces three risks.

First, he undermines the ability to build consensus on potentially contentious policy issues. While there is also risk at having an opponent in a key Cabinet position, prime ministers in the past have enjoyed greater success when they pick someone in the middle who can effectively bridge the gap between opposing sides of an argument.

Second, he will personally own the missteps by his Cabinet appointees. There will invariably be a minister who runs afoul based on gaffes, scandals or poor decision-making. In a “unity Cabinet,” the prime minister can sidestep internal LDP scrutiny by sharing the blame with other party leaders, but if one of Ishiba’s allies falters, his opponents can place the responsibility squarely upon him. Given that there are already several party elites itching to see him fail, Ishiba must hope that his allies perform well and stay out of trouble.

Third, Ishiba has given his opponents the opportunity to focus on usurping his position. If rivals are placed in the Cabinet, they then have other responsibilities that occupy their time and attention. Outside of the Cabinet, they have all the time to focus on politics and their pathways to power, which can be a dangerous thing considering the political influence and acumen of individuals like Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi and Toshimitsu Motegi.

Without being privy to the backroom dealings and machinations of LDP members, it is impossible to understand why Ishiba landed on this particular set of party leadership and Cabinet officials.

Was it because his party rivals were offered key positions but boycotted them? Were the decisions based on Ishiba’s personal preferences or advice from his supporters? While we cannot answer those questions, breaking down some of the specific choices offers insight into the bigger picture decision-making by the new administration.

Appointments for top supporters

Soon after winning the LDP presidential election, Ishiba posted a photo on social media showing him celebrating with members of his election team. That photo became a bingo card for Cabinet appointments, everybody but one in that picture found their way into key positions in the administration — all of which are the most important to Ishiba’s policy priorities.

Most notably, former Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya was given the post of foreign minister from the very capable Yoko Kamikawa. Iwaya did a serviceable job as defense minister and has served as a vice minister for foreign affairs in the past. He is now tasked with acting as Ishiba’s top diplomat in championing the new leader’s policy vision to allies, partners and adversaries alike.

Additionally, Gen Nakatani earned a chance to reprise his role as minister of defense. As a ranking member of the LDP presidential election committee, Nakatani could not outwardly display his support for Ishiba, but his loyalty now puts him in the position to champion Ishiba’s defense policies — a function he similarly carried out for Shinzo Abe when the former administration was pushing its 2015 security legislation.

There were others among Ishiba’s allies who received top postings that reflect his personal interest areas: Yasuhiro Ozato took over the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries; Ryosei Akazawa accepted the role of minister for economic revitalization; Yoshitaka Ito takes on the regional revitalization billet; and Takamaro Fukuoka is the new minister for health, labor and welfare. Although Ishiba tends to be associated with defense policies, his first passion as a politician resided in these functional areas now under the stewardship of his close supporters.

Koizumi in as LDP election strategy chairperson

While Shinjiro Koizumi’s popularity was not enough to net him a spot in last Friday’s runoff round of voting, it is something that Ishiba will look to capitalize upon now. Koizumi has endorsed Ishiba in past leadership races and he is now tasked with eliciting the same endorsement for an Ishiba-led LDP in the forthcoming snap election. Ultimately, this appointment plays to Koizumi’s strengths — his popularity and campaigning ability — while minimizing his weaknesses related to managing bureaucrats and implementing policy.

Takaichi rejects a appointment

Takaichi was always going to be a problem for Ishiba, given her strong opposition to most of his policies. Since it is conciliatory for a new LDP president to offer leadership positions to election opponents, Ishiba offered Takaichi the general affairs council chairperson position within the party. Although Takaichi has never held this position, she reportedly viewed this as beneath her, instead asking for the ever-important LDP secretary-general position. When Ishiba declined, Takaichi objected, opting to remain out of the Cabinet where she could potentially cause problems for Ishiba going forward.

Hayashi remains chief Cabinet secretary

Yoshimasa Hayashi and Ishiba know each other well, and while they have gone head-to-head in the LDP race, they have mutual respect. This is key since the chief Cabinet secretary is the de facto spokesperson for the administration and manages the bureaucracy. Additionally, Hayashi has long been a steady hand in all Cabinet postings and he has performed well in his current position since last December.

It’s also good for Hayashi and his backers from Fumio Kishida’s former faction. It promises continuity in Kishida’s policies while keeping Hayashi in a strong position to succeed Ishiba as prime minister when the time comes.

Aso out, Suga in as LDP VP

Taro Aso’s disdain for Ishiba is well-known. Aso has taken deliberate steps to orchestrate “anyone-but-Ishiba” outcomes in the past and his backing of Takaichi in the LDP presidential election was yet another example. With nothing owed to Aso, Ishiba has taken the opportunity to speed the decline of the former prime minister by removing his institutional authorities and relegating him to the position as chief adviser to the party.

To replace Aso, Ishiba brought in former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Suga holds the distinction as being the longest serving and most effective chief Cabinet secretary in history, but he has always been better at dealing with bureaucrats than LDP politicians. He now has the chance to apply his skill sets in shepherding organizational change within the party — whether he will be successful in that effort is uncertain.

Moriyama new LDP secretary-general

Hiroshi Moriyama is a former faction head and a party baron, so Ishiba did his diligence in naming him the number two of the party. In this position, Moriyama can influence key decisions related to the timing of elections, the selection of candidates and personnel appointments within party councils and committees. Moriyama has reportedly already exercised this influence by pushing Ishiba to pursue a sooner-than-expected snap election. It will be important to observe how else Moriyama wields his newfound power.

Kato named minister of finance

Picking Katsunobu Kato as finance minister is an interesting choice because it indicates a key deal that secured Ishiba’s victory in last week’s election. Kato netted just 22 votes in the LDP leadership race, which does not seem like many, but when the margin of victory in the runoff was only 21 votes, it made all the difference. Kato understood that he had no shot of winning the race, but he bartered his support for Ishiba in exchange for the most coveted Cabinet posting — one that had been tightly controlled by Aso and his brother-in-law, Shunichi Suzuki, since 2012.

Given Kato’s penchant for bending with the political winds, he will likely be an advocate for Ishiba in the ever-important Finance Ministry, but it is no guarantee for success. Pursuing the sort of monetary policy that Ishiba has signaled requires more than ministry influence given the Bank of Japan’s relative autonomy and the influence of business interests. This will be Kato’s toughest Cabinet appointment to date and a risk area for Ishiba, given the unfamiliar nature of his relationship with his new finance minister.