Kishida takes ‘global green’ initiative to the Middle East

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida this week visited the Middle East for a short, three-country trip that was intended to facilitate the transformation of relations with that region.

Tokyo has long depended on the Gulf states for energy supplies, a dependence that has assumed greater significance amid supply disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Middle East countries are eager to develop and diversify their economies, reducing dependence on oil and gas for revenue, which provides for more than half their national incomes. Japan can assist in that transition and that assistance can be the fulcrum of a new relationship for both Japan and regional partners.

Japan has an energy self-sufficiency rate of 12%, the lowest among leading industrialized nations. Imports provide 99.7% of its crude oil, 97.7% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 99.6% of its coal. The Middle East supplies more than 90% of the nation’s crude oil imports, with Saudi Arabia accounting for about one-third of the total. Not surprisingly, then, the Middle East has long been a priority in Japan’s foreign and national security policy.

That motivated Kishida to visit three Middle East countries — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar — this past week. It was his first trip to the region since becoming prime minister in October 2021 and the first by a Japanese prime minister in three years. (He had planned to go last summer but had to postpone the tour after being infected with COVID-19.)

Kishida and the leaders he met must navigate a transition in the global energy economy, reducing dependence on fossil fuels and increasing reliance on renewable energy sources, a move that could have devastating impacts on the countries that dominate energy markets. The difficulties inherent in that shift have been magnified by geopolitical developments, most particularly the war in Ukraine, which has cut access to Russian energy exports as many countries, Japan among them, have tried to deny Moscow revenues from their sale.

At the same time, U.S. influence in this vital area is diminishing. This reflects tension between Washington’s human rights policies and those of regional governments, Saudi Arabia in particular, and a U.S. desire to prioritize foreign policy engagement, focusing on Asia and less on the volatile Middle East.

This has created an opportunity for China, which it has seized. Beijing recently helped broker the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran — and Chinese President Xi Jinping said that his country is prepared to play a “positive role” in promoting peace talks with Israel. Aggressive diplomacy is complemented by an expanded economic presence as Beijing works with Saudi Arabia on the kingdom’s economic modernization effort. Central to geostrategic thinking is ensuring access to the region’s energy supplies and there are worries in both Tokyo and Beijing that these are zero-sum games in which one country’s gains come at the expense of the other.

At his first stop in Saudi Arabia, Kishida and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took steps to deepen the bilateral relationship. They agreed to launch a “strategic dialogue” at the foreign-minister level to promote diplomatic engagement and signed more than two dozen memorandums to share energy technology that will facilitate diversification of the kingdom’s economy, a goal that is enshrined in the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 reform plan.

Decarbonization is at the heart of Saudi thinking and Japan is well-positioned to assist that effort with the provision of technologies to promote solar power as well as hydrogen and ammonia, two other clean energy sources. Kishida explained that “We are shifting away from the existing relationship of an oil importer and an exporter and will deepen a new global partnership for the decarbonization era.”

The prime minister calls this the "global green journey" initiative, which aims to not only diversify those economies but introduce technologies that reduce carbon emissions in other manufacturing processes. The goal, explained Kishida in a press conference, is to turn the Middle East into a “hub” for exporting decarbonized energy and essential materials.

The presence of over 100 business executives on this tour, the first time an economic mission had traveled with Kishida since he became prime minister, is a sign of the Tokyo government’s seriousness and the readiness of the commercial sector to follow its lead.

Kishida repeated his message the next day in the UAE, urging a business forum “to utilize Japan’s power for your economic development for the next 50 years.” Meeting with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the two leaders agreed to cooperate to promote green energy projects, decarbonize their economies and combat climate change. That last item will assume greater significance in the fall when the UAE host the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP28.

At the third stop, Qatar, Kishida focused on securing a stable supply of LNG as that country embarks on an ambitious plan to increase production. Qatar is currently one of the world’s leading LNG producers, accounting for some 20% of global exports and it has projects under way to boost output by 60%.

The Japan-Qatar relationship stumbled in 2021 when a Japanese venture terminated its contract with Qatar to supply LNG: A forecast of diminished demand was upended by the disruption of energy markets that followed the invasion of Ukraine, forcing Japan to compete for supplies in a tightening market. Fortunately, Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, told Kishida that his country is “prepared” to ensure a stable LNG supply. As at the other stops, that economic relationship will go hand in hand with deeper diplomatic relations and the two countries will increase the frequency of talks on defense and foreign affairs.

A pillar of enhanced diplomatic relations with all three countries is respect for a rules-based international order. Summarizing the trip, Kishida explained that “we will base our cooperation on the shared goal of maintaining a free and open international community based on the rule of law.” He steered away from talk of human rights, however, reportedly not raising the 2018 murder of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Turkey to avoid complicating relations. That is a geopolitical calculation that is disturbing, nevertheless.

Kishida’s trip signals a new approach by Japan to the region. A foreign policy that has been dominated by energy concerns is becoming, as Kuni Miyake noted in Friday’s Japan Times, more strategic. Tokyo aims to forge stronger and more multidimensional ties as Middle East dynamics become more fluid. It’s a smart move but success demands far more than a prime ministerial visit. Japan must use this trip as the foundation for continuous and determined effort and engagement from a variety of business and industrial sectors. Kishida has made a good start.