Iran is reacting badly to the announcement that Europe is planning to send a multinational naval force to protect shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz. "We heard that they intend to send a European fleet to the Persian Gulf which naturally carries a hostile message, is provocative and will increase tensions," said a Tehran spokesman.

In combination, the Europeans' welcome decision to increase the warship count and the Iranian response are likely to increase the chances of a military miscalculation that provokes a shooting war.

The strategic backdrop, of course, is the U.S.-Iranian conflict that is being played out in the aftermath of the U.S. pullout from the 2015 nuclear agreement and its levying of harsh economic sanctions on Iran. In response, the Iranians are trying to show the world that they control the Strait of Hormuz and can close it if they choose, thus causing significant disruption to the global economy.