AMSTERDAM — The region between Egypt and Pakistan is a caldron of five discrete, explosive components: Iraq's civil strife, Afghanistan's insurgency, Iran's nuclear ambitions, the long-standing Israel-Arab conflict, and the risk of clashes between extremist groups and corrupt, repressive governments.
A comprehensive policy is needed, yet the threats are so diverse and complex that separate approaches have to be applied simultaneously.
In Iraq, America's policy of building a semi-federal state of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds runs a high risk of failure because of Shiite domination, Sunni and Shiite terrorism, Kurdish separatism and meddling by Iran. The cost in lives is already unbearably high. The United States cannot sustain either the current rate of casualties (American and Iraqi) or the expense. To create the conditions for long-term stability, a negotiated separation may be needed, comparable to the Dayton Peace Agreement that ended the war in former Yugoslavia.