Twelve months ago, the international community heaved a sigh of relief as the major powers appeared to reach a compromise on how to manage Iraq. But Washington's determination to act on its own cut short the role of U.N. weapons inspectors and challenged the very notion that the organization has a role to play in issues of peace and security.
Today, the international scene is much altered. Bogged down in Iraq, Washington is relying on multilateral processes to address threats of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran. It also has backed down on protectionist tariffs on steel imports condemned by the World Trade Organization.
The capture of Saddam Hussein provided welcome respite, but foreign-policy coherence is still missing in action in Washington. The situation in Iraq, a product of a post-9/11 reaction aggravated by hubris, offers no attractive short-term options. And in the long term, as Lord Keynes remarked, we are all dead.
In the Middle East's core conflict, meanwhile, the most promising initiative came from unofficial representatives of Israelis and Palestinians in the form of the Geneva accord. Increasing discussion of a single-state solution -- involving the Jewish and Arab inhabitants and territories of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza -- has generated a sense among many that time and demographic developments are making agreement more urgent.
The war on terrorism is too narrow. A strategy undermining support for terrorism by addressing sources of discontent is a necessary complement to actions aimed at taking out terrorists themselves. The war on terrorism must also delve into politics -- redress group grievances and assuage collective humiliation -- while fighting in the back streets, deserts and mountain valleys.
The year was a sobering one for the European Union, split over both foreign and economic policy and unable to agree on constitutional arrangements. For those who believe a united Europe on foreign policy would be a stabilizing force in international relations, the sight of Britain and France at each other's throats in the Security Council (with Spain and Germany dug in behind) was depressing. No less striking was Franco-German willingness to ride roughshod over the EU's economic stability pact because of domestic imperatives.
The world eagerly looks forward to Japan's continuing emergence as a force to be reckoned with in the councils of world diplomacy. Can it shake off burdens of historical guilt and a propensity to be the automatic teller machine for grandiose U.S. and U.N. schemes to help repair major damage caused by nature and man alike? The dearth of bold and skilled international relations professionals to fashion an independent and self-confident foreign policy weighs down Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's admirable attempt to push Japan into the 21st century.
Asia, particularly regional giants China and India, continues to see growth amid dizzying disparities. Economic expansion has largely displaced security concerns, but terrorism remains a threat -- and now a more openly acknowledged one.
The year did little to counter the growing impression of China's ascendance as Asia's major political and diplomatic player. It took a lead role in trying to resolve the nuclear standoff on the Korean Peninsula; established common cause with India and Brazil at the failed Cancun talks to challenge EU-U.S. hegemony in global trade negotiations; kept relations with Washington on an even keel; and sent a citizen into space.
India maintained its tradition of rambunctious democracy but seems finally to have broken from its record of dismal economic performance. By year's end, there was genuine hope in the air that Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf were getting serious about trying to cut a deal on Kashmir.
Africa had a mixed year. The African Union selected an impressive chairman in Alpha Oumar Konare, former president of Mali. South African President Thabo Mbeki reversed his opposition to science-based treatment of the AIDS pandemic, while international pharmaceutical companies belatedly moved to make such treatment more accessible. Amid the combination of sanctions, U.N. inspections and hard negotiations, Libya decided to abandon the pursuit of weapons of mass destruction.
However, progress has been slow in the application of the African-generated New Economic Program for Africa's Development, which favors improved governance and greater democracy. Some African leaders are unwilling to confront Zimbabwe's march to destitution and violence under the dictatorial Robert Mugabe.
Latin America continues to disappoint, to a much lesser degree, on economic and democratic performance. Mexico's President Vicente Fox is frustrated by Congress and weighed down by his own mistakes. Brazil's President Luiz (Lula) da Silva, enjoying a domestic honeymoon, is forging an intriguing diplomatic coalition with India and South Africa. Regionwide free trade seems a receding mirage as the U.S. picks off successive partners for bilateral deals.
For the United Nations, it was the worst of times and the best of times. The advocates of war condemned it for failing to enforce Iraqi compliance with U.N. resolutions; opponents faulted it for failing to punish the aggressors. The deep tears in the fabric of international society in 2003 took its toll on the credibility of the U.N., yet people still look to it as the forum for global problem-solving.
The Iraq war damaged the three great institutions of the last half century -- the EU, NATO and the U.N. In addition, preemptive war is now a featured fare on Washington's policy menu.
The U.N. and the U.S. share an interest in isolating and defeating terrorism -- not each other -- and in promoting democracy, human rights and the rule of law. May the new year see much progress on each of these.
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