WASHINGTON -- The most frequently asked question that I have had to field from friends these past weeks is, who will the Democrats run against President George W. Bush in 2004? My answer is an honest one, if not a satisfactory one: "I have no idea, but there will be a Democratic candidate -- and he could win."

Many of those who are asking the question of who will oppose Bush are really thinking "Why bother?" That is rebutted quickly by a rehash of his father's record. George H.W. Bush had a much higher favorable rating at this stage of his presidency in 1991 than George W. Bush does now, but he managed to dissipate it through the campaign and lost to a candidate who, at this stage of the 1992 campaign, was a rank outsider -- little-known Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. Strange things happen in U.S. politics.

The presorting period of the Democratic selection contest is in high gear. Recently Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry underwent an extensive examination on national television by a tough reporter, and did rather well. Others will follow, and they will begin to get their campaigns in gear as the new year approaches.