HONOLULU -- The handshake between Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in Nepal last Saturday caused an international sigh of relief as the two nuclear powers took a tentative step back from the brink of war. Tensions will remain high on the Indian subcontinent, however, as New Delhi waits to see if Islamabad follows through with its current crackdown on Kashmiri terrorist camps and havens in Pakistan.
But those worrying about a deliberate nuclear war between these two historic rivals are missing the real danger. Even if Indian decides to launch surgical strikes against terrorist camps in Pakistan, and even if Pakistan retaliates (and China rattles its sabers in support), the odds are extremely high that neither leader would resort to the use of his limited nuclear arsenal; Vajpayee because he doesn't have to and Musharraf because the arsenal represents his major ace in the hole, to be saved until national survival is truly at risk.
Nor is there much danger of Musharraf playing his "China card." Although Pakistani leader made a point of traveling to Katmandu via Beijing, where Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji expressed China's steadfast support for Pakistan, China's last attempt to "teach a lesson" to one of its neighbors for attacking one of its friends -- its brief but bloody invasion into northern Vietnam in 1979 -- will likely cause it to think twice before reacting against a much more capable foe, especially if India's objectives are limited to terrorist targets.