Approximately 50 days have passed since the Cabinet of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was sworn in. Various opinion surveys have shown that its public approval ratings have climbed to nearly 90 percent from around 80 percent at the time of its birth, defying the usual pattern of approval rates declining as time goes by.

At the same time, however, we are beginning to see some dark clouds and difficult issues on the horizon.

I see three areas where Koizumi may face difficulties: (1) the words and deeds of Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka; (2) resistance or lack of cooperation from the conservative members within the Liberal Democratic Party, notably the largest faction, Keiseikai; and (3) the continued economic slump.

First, the high approval rate that the Koizumi government has enjoyed since its inception is mainly due to the unusually high level of popularity garnered by the combination of the prime minister and the foreign minister.

But while Koizumi remains popular, the discord between Tanaka and the bureaucrats within her ministry has assumed such serious proportions that it is rocking the very foundation of the regime.

Furthermore, disclosure of Tanaka's comments criticizing the United States cast a cloud over her visit to Washington, giving rise to a speculation that Koizumi might have to dismiss her.

The worst was averted at a meeting held June 11 among the prime minister, the foreign minister and Director General Gen Nakatani of the Defense Agency, as it was decided that the trio would travel to Washington in succession for talks on the bilateral relationship, including diplomatic and security matters, with leaders of the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush.

The Koizumi regime was founded on the strong bond between the prime minister and Tanaka. Therefore if Koizumi were to dismiss her, in all likelihood that would boomerang against him, costing him the premiership.

The U.S. is fully aware of the relationship between the two. That is why Washington, which has been unhappy with Tanaka's criticisms, had to agree reluctantly to the successive visits by the three.

The second issue is the "cold war" between the reformist force led by Koizumi and the conservative group represented by the Keiseikai faction. The feud is likely to linger until the Upper House election in July.

If the LDP suffers an unexpected defeat in the election, Koizumi will certainly take responsibility and be forced to resign. In such an event, some may argue that Koizumi should be given credit for having led the LDP to only a minor defeat compared to what the disaster that would taken place had the election been held under the leadership of Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, but this argument would not hold water. Given Koizumi's popularity, however, this scenario is most unlikely.

If, on the other hand, the LDP wins in the election, Koizumi is certain to remain in power. It should be noted, however, that a resounding victory by the LDP may make the Koizumi regime less stable than if the party wins by a small margin, even though this sounds somewhat odd.

A big win could lead to an ironic situation in which many in the conservative wing who survive the election collaborate to force the reformist prime minister to resign. For this reason, a moderate victory may well present the best possible scenario for ensuring the survival of the Koizumi government.

The third problem, the protracted economic slump, is indeed serious. Recent economic indicators show that the gross domestic product during the first quarter of this year contracted by 0.2 percent from the preceding three months, following negative growth recorded in the July-September period of last year.

On a year-on-year basis, the January-March figure represented a negative growth of 0.8 percent. Coming just as Koizumi is about to launch structural reform that could cause pain to the people, these statistics could have serious repercussions.