Ukraine is descending deeper into political turmoil. The country has been battered by scandals that are alleged to reach as far as President Leonid Kuchma. The country's most popular politician, Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko, was booted from office last month when he lost a no-confidence vote in Parliament. Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, the West had high hopes for Ukraine's future. The country has squandered many opportunities since then, but it is too important to be ignored. Engagement can change Ukraine's future.
Mr. Yushchenko is a reformer. His 16-month old government, considered by many to be the best in Ukraine's decade of post-Soviet independence, is a threat to the vested interests -- Communists and big business -- that control much of the power and the economy. In recent weeks, they have found an ally in Mr. Kuchma, and together the two groups managed to oust the prime minister in a move that brought thousands of protesters into the streets.
Mr. Kuchma is the key to Ukraine's future. The former Soviet apparatchik was formerly allied with his prime minister, but the two men grew apart. Their diverging fortunes contributed to the split. When voters are asked to name their most popular political leaders, the prime minister tops the polls; the president is at the bottom.
Mr. Kuchma's problem is not just bad public relations. He presides over a government that is increasingly repressive and corrupt. The Committee to Protect Journalists has named Mr. Kuchma as one of the 10 worst enemies of the press. Transparency International, a nongovernment organization that focuses on corruption, calls Ukraine one of the worst offenders.
Those are abstractions when compared to the allegations of Mr. Kuchma's active involvement in the murder of a crusading journalist and attempts to harass the media. Last September, Mr. Heorhiy Gongadze, a muckraking journalist, disappeared. Two months later, a headless, badly decomposed body was found that was reportedly his. A preliminary autopsy and DNA tests confirmed the identification, but all facts are disputed.
The scandal exploded when tapes surfaced that allegedly contained conversations among Mr. Kuchma and his top staff and directly implicated them in the disappearance, as well as other criminal acts. Although the president dismissed the tapes as forgeries created by foreign intelligence services to destabilize the country, many Ukrainians believe they are real. There are two reasons for that. First, the tapes were provided by a key member of the president's bodyguard, who has fled to the West. Mr. Kuchma is said to have routinely taped conversations for record-keeping purposes, and the leaked tapes might well be copies of them. The firing of the official in charge of the archives, which contain the original recordings, would seem to confirm that theory.
The second reason for the widespread belief in the lurid allegations is that the tapes have corroborated lesser accusations. Ukraine's opposition media has complained of government harassment, tax raids, confiscation of print runs and high fines for libel, precisely the tactics advocated on the tapes.
The dismissal of Mr. Yushchenko brought the situation to a boil. While the president has promised to name a replacement by mid-May, the opposition is calling for a referendum that would be the equivalent of a popular no-confidence motion. The problem is that Ukraine's constitution does not provide for the president to be dismissed via a referendum. Still, there is a growing movement for reform. A majority of parliamentarians have expressed support for constitutional amendments that would shift power from the president to the Parliament.
Other governments need to help the reformers. Ukraine, a country of 49 million people nestled between Russia and the West, is too big and too strategically important a place to ignore. The failure to act could return the Communists to power, or help push Ukraine back toward Moscow, emulating Belarus and other Central Asian governments. There are ample ties with the West and international financial institutions that could be used to backstop the reform movement and encourage positive change in the country.
There are grounds for optimism. After several years of economic stagnation, the economy is growing again. The International Monetary Fund predicts that it will expand 4 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2002. Inflation is still high at 13.3 percent, but it is under control. Mr. Yushchenko is only one of a group of capable leaders that could help Ukraine escape from its morass. They deserve our support.
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