China is on track to lead the world in science — at least by one revealing measure.

An analysis of almost 6 million research papers shows that Chinese scientists are taking the helm in almost half of all collaborations with U.S. counterparts, a shift that underscores Beijing’s growing influence in setting the global research agenda.

The study, published Tuesday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that Chinese-based scientists filled 45% of leadership roles in U.S.-China joint studies in 2023, up from 30% in 2010. If the trend holds, China will reach parity with the U.S. in 2027 or 2028 — the point at which both sides lead an equal share of joint research.