The government of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba overcame its first major hurdle of the year Tuesday, as the Lower House approved a ¥115.2 trillion ($772 billion) revised budget proposal for fiscal 2025 — a milestone widely seen as essential for the survival of his administration.
The budget proposal was backed by 258 lawmakers, enough to form a majority with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition, which only holds 220 out of 465 seats. It reflects significant compromises the coalition made to Nippon Ishin no Kai on areas such as education and social security.
It’s the first time in 29 years that the Lower House has approved a revised version of a budget proposal from the government for an upcoming fiscal year.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — the largest opposition party in the chamber — voted against the proposal on the grounds that it doesn’t address the necessary challenges the country’s facing.
“We cannot entrust the finances of our country any longer to a government that doesn’t take reform spending seriously, doesn’t work on securing financial resources, wastes taxpayers’ money and fails to implement necessary policies,” the CDP’s Satoshi Honjo said in the plenary assembly, criticizing what the party deemed as the government’s tendency to excessively set aside reserve funds it doesn’t end up using.
The party had attempted to push the government into accepting its counterproposal last month, with little success.
As the LDP-Komeito coalition progressively bridged its distance with Nippon Ishin over the last week, the CDP gambled on demanding the government freeze a planned raising of the ceiling on out-of-pocket expenses for high-cost medical care. However, Ishiba didn’t budge, insisting the government will implement the hike as planned.
The CDP tried to postpone voting on the budget in the plenary session, arguing that further investigation was needed into the circumstances behind the LDP's slush-funds scandal. However, it dropped its attempt, eventually judging that it had fulfilled its role by striking a balance between holding the government to account and acting as a responsible opposition party.
The difference in the approach by Nippon Ishin and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), the two main targets of the ruling coalition's outreach, effectively decided the outcome of the vote.
Nippon Ishin voted in favor of the LDP-Komeito proposal after clarifying their position over increasing the tax-free threshold for annual income from the current ¥1.03 million to ¥1.6 million — the subject of another bill tied to the budget and the main bone of contention in the coalition's negotiations with the DPP.
The party’s secretary-general, Ryohei Iwatani, formalized Nippon Ishin's position at a meeting with his counterparts in the LDP and Komeito on Monday evening.
Thanks to its agreement with the coalition, the party was able to achieve the policy goals it heralded since its foundation, Iwatani said as he expressed the party’s stance in the plenary assembly.
“We don’t agree with everything (that the coalition said),” he told the assembly. “But as a responsible opposition party, in order to protect people's livelihoods, and for the future of the next generation and the country, we support this budget.”
Meanwhile, the DPP opposed the government's budget following the breakdown of talks between them, saying the proposal doesn’t take into consideration the realities of the working population. Together with the CDP, the party on Monday submitted a bill to abolish a temporary tax on gasoline next month.
All other opposition parties also voted against the government’s budget.
The budget bill will now move to the Upper House, where it is expected to be approved sometime this month due to the ruling coalition’s comfortable majority in the chamber.
The budget’s approval in the Lower House has long been seen as indispensable for the survival of the Ishiba administration. However, many in the LDP have expressed their discontent at the concessions made to Nippon Ishin, lamenting the lack of a thorough discussion within the party.
With the second half of the current session of parliament being fraught with obstacles and the Upper House election set for the summer, Ishiba can’t rest easy yet.
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