With the next session of parliament set to convene on Oct. 20, speculation is growing that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will call a snap election before the end of this year in an attempt to strengthen his position as he heads into what is expected to be a politically difficult 2024.

The next two months will see a debate within the government over an economic stimulus package and a supplementary budget bill to pay for it. That could be approved by early December, around the time Kishida might call a snap election.

There had been talk in Tokyo’s political heart of Nagatacho that Kishida might dissolve parliament as soon as it convenes and hold an election. However, the prime minister has said he wants to concentrate on the economic stimulus package, and that will take time to work out once parliament convenes. Political commentator Tetsuo Suzuki says that it’s more likely a snap election would be called for later in the year.

“Two possible dates for a snap election are Nov. 26 and Dec. 10," Suzuki said. "Nov. 26 might be chosen if the opposition parties refuse to discuss the supplementary budget to pay for the economic package that gets introduced later this month. Or, it might take place another two weeks after that — Dec. 10."

The latter date is around when the supplementary budget is expected to be approved and the more controversial issues of how to pay for child care policy and increased defense spending are expected to be discussed in parliament.

According to Suzuki, two other factors will help determine if a snap election is held this year: the public reaction to the government’s effort to seek a court order that would disband the former Unification Church as well as the announcement of a summit between Japan and China, possibly including South Korea, that may happen in late December.

If Kishida sees a rise in his public approval ratings due to the economic stimulus package, his handling of the Unification Church or his ability to play statesmen with China and perhaps South Korea, that could lead him to decide it’s better to hold an election before the end of the year than wait until 2024.

The next Lower House election does not have to be held until 2025, although the prime minister alone has the right to dissolve parliament. Thus, it's possible that, if he doesn’t call a snap election before the end of this year, he could do so in the first half of next year.

But the parliamentary session expected to begin in January will be responsible for approving the budget for the fiscal year beginning in April. The budget must include how the government will pay for the defense spending increase and the child care measures, both of which are expected to produce heated debate.

Calling a snap election in April, right after the budget passes, is a possibility, Suzuki said. But if Kishida’s poll numbers are bad at that time, there would be concern within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party about a voter backlash at the polls.

That parliamentary session closes in June, and the LDP presidential election takes place in September. Regardless of whether he calls a snap election before that, Kishida might find those who have supported him so far decide to challenge him in the party poll or back someone else.

“By the time of the LDP presidential election, we have to ask whether LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi would still support Kishida for re-election. There’s a possibility he would not," Suzuki said.

Other LDP members such as economic security minister Sanae Takaichi or former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba might challenge Kishida, while former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and his allies, currently on the outside of the Kishida administration, could move to back someone else, he added.

“At this point, though, a snap election in late fall or December of this year is still possible and something we need to keep an eye on.”