Japan’s meager prospects of achieving sustainable inflation is boosting the likelihood the central bank will conduct a policy review or make mechanical adjustments to its policy framework, according to a former chief economist at the Bank of Japan.
"I continue to expect no policy adjustments during Gov. (Haruhiko) Kuroda’s term” which ends in April, said Seisaku Kameda on Friday. Any review or changes will come after he steps down, and be subtler than a rate hike, he said.
The ex-chief economist’s view echoes that of Makoto Sakurai, a former board member who said this month a review could follow Kuroda’s departure. A closer scrutiny of policy side effects may then result in a range of shifts, Sakurai said.
Kameda said any change under a new leadership is likely to come in the form of a tweak in the framework of the BOJ’s yield curve control program. The central bank has been holding workshops on inflation and wages, and lessons from those could be used for the policy review, he said.
Whoever succeeds Kuroda will face tough challenges. A global economic slowdown next year is likely to take a heavier toll on Japan’s economy than the BOJ currently expects, said Kameda, who now serves as executive economist at Sompo Institute Plus.
"Japan’s economy will continue to need a certain level of easy monetary conditions,” Kameda said. Under a new governorship, "the BOJ’s discussions will probably be about whether this much extreme easing is warranted, rather than if they should tighten.”
Kameda’s comments Friday also came immediately after a government report showed the BOJ’s key inflation gauge reached 3.6%, the highest level since February 1982 and far beyond the central bank’s 2% target rate.
Still, wages in Japan continue to trail inflation, a major reason why Kuroda reiterated in parliament Friday the BOJ’s sustainable price goal is far from being achieved.
The price data largely reflected more companies passing on their costs to customers due to higher commodity prices and a weak yen boosting import costs, Kameda said. There’s still little sign of demand-pull inflation, he added.
While service prices rose at the fastest pace since 1998 barring the impact from sales tax hikes, Kameda said they were led by restaurants forced to raise prices due to higher costs, not demand.
"Companies passing their costs on is a change,” Kameda said. "But I still can’t see the trend continuing long enough for Japan’s economy to smoothly enter into a virtuous economic cycle of inflation and wage growth.”
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