Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to increased calls from lawmakers to revise Japan's Constitution in order to better deter an attack, forcing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to address an issue that is gaining public attention in the months leading up to July's Upper House election.

But how much of an election issue constitutional revision will be remains uncertain, with some analysts believing that Kishida should instead focus on pocketbook issues related to high energy and commodity prices caused by the invasion.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has put forth proposals for constitutional reform in four areas: language that would clearly make the Self-Defense Forces constitutional; a clause that increases the government's powers in responding to national emergencies, including natural disasters; a revision that would provide free education, including higher education; and a change prohibiting the creation of Upper House electoral districts that cover two or more prefectures.

Kishida has said he hopes the debate on the Constitution within parliament will progress.

“We have to firmly respond to the argument that some parts of the Constitution are out of step with the times and that some things are lacking,” he said during a televised debate Sunday on NHK.

But while the prime minister also spoke on the LDP's proposals during the debate, calling it a "basic, preliminary draft" and saying it was important to have a clear statement on the constitutionality of the SDF, he did not lay out a strategy for discussing it within the LDP.

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, an ardent supporter of constitutional revision, has been pushing for discussions on the issue. At a rally in his home constituency in Yamaguchi Prefecture on April 3, Abe referred to revising the Constitution, saying it was time to "do what needed to be done," especially with language regarding the Self-Defense Forces.

“It's the responsibility of politicians to put an end to the debate over the unconstitutionality of the Self-Defense Forces,” Abe told a crowd of about 1,100.

The call was a not-so-subtle message to Kishida to not drag his feet on the issue at a time of increased international tensions. Those stem not only from the invasion of Ukraine but also from growing concern about how Russia may change its military posture in East Asia — all while China becomes more assertive in the region and North Korea continues test firing missiles. Against this backdrop, many in Japan's government wonder whether the country has the capability to defend itself in the event of an attack.

There is also a political element involved. Abe and Kishida have a complex relationship, one that includes both past support but also long-standing political differences, which have led to strains and power struggles between the two men. While Abe has always been a proponent of a revised Constitution that strengthens the role of the SDF, Kishida has indicated in the past that it wasn’t a priority for him.

Shigeru Handa, a defense writer and adjunct professor at Dokkyo University and Hosei University, points to two instances where Kishida distinguished himself from Abe on the need to revise the Constitution.

“At an Oct. 5, 2015, meeting of his faction members, Kishida said that he didn’t think about revising the Constitution. During a 2017 television appearance when he was the LDP policy chief under Abe, Kishda contrasted himself with Abe by saying that the prime minister was conservative and a hawk, whereas he was a liberal and a dove,” Handa said.

“But Kishida changed his stance during the LDP presidential election last year, saying he would aim to realize the four LDP proposals for constitutional revision during his four-year term as LDP president. It was a tactic to make himself more attractive to Abe’s supporters,” he added.

Abe is the leader of the LDP’s largest faction, while Kishida is head of the party’s fourth largest.

Ritsumeikan University political scientist Masato Kamikubo notes that despite a rivalry between Abe and Kishida — both personally and as leaders of two LDP factions — the latter's top priorities are navigating the current geopolitical moment while building an effective defense strategy in the age of advanced missile technologies.

Kamikubo argues that an exclusively defense-oriented policy doesn’t work for Japan because it would lose the ability to counterattack in the event of a missile attack.

"In order to gain the ability to attack missile bases in an enemy country, constitutional reform is necessary and Kishida understands this,” he said.

While Kishida may understand the need for constitutional reform at some point, both Kamikubo and Handa believe that Abe's emphasis on immediate change is not the majority view within the LDP. That said, individual politicians allied with Abe may feel the need to follow him.

“Abe’s faction is the largest in the LDP and many lawmakers in it believe it's best to act in line with Abe’s ideas,” Handa says.

Four parties, including the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition, Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People, have at least indicated they support constitutional revision. The four currently hold enough seats to form the necessary two-thirds majority in both houses that is needed for revision, although a national referendum would also need to be held.

But whether or not the Constitution is a major campaign issue depends on the international situation between now and election day, and how that situation affects pocketbook issues such as rising prices for food and gasoline.

“Before the Ukraine crisis, only a few Japanese were interested in amending the Constitution. Kishida did not want to position it as a campaign issue ahead of the Upper House election,” Kamikubo said. "Now, security and constitutional reform will be major policy debates in the run up to the election, and Kishida may speak directly on the need for reform while criticizing (anti-reform) opposition party views as being unrealistic."

Handa said that while an increasing number of right-wing LDP members are calling for constitutional reform and more people than ever before are interested in the Constitution, it probably won’t be the main issue in the Upper House election.

“Social security and rising consumer prices — issues that have a direct relationship to their own lives — will be the biggest voter priorities,” he said.

Nevertheless, Japan could be in a better position to realize constitutional revision after the July election, Handa said. Kishida would have three years to make it happen — if he wished — because the next Lower or Upper House elections do not have to be held until 2025.

“Depending on the Upper House election results, a national referendum on constitutional revision may be held within three years,” he said.