The ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Wednesday submitted to the government its proposal for revising Japan’s most important defense and diplomacy documents, including its National Security Strategy, in a move that could signal big changes ahead for the country’s security policies.
The proposal, which aims to drastically revise three key documents — the National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) and the Medium-Term Defense Force Buildup Program (MTDP) — amid what it calls Japan’s “increasingly severe” security environment, was submitted to Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi and later Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
The revision of the NSS would be the first since it was originally approved by the Cabinet in late 2013.
"Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues. In a situation that can be said to be the greatest (current) crisis for the international community, we must drastically strengthen Japan's defense capabilities," Kishi said Wednesday.
Citing Russian aggression in Ukraine, North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, and China’s growing military activities in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan, the LDP is urging the government to take measures that ensure Japan's security “without being constrained by precedents,” the proposal said.
This would include acquiring “counterstrike capabilities” to attack enemy bases and command-and-control nodes, which critics say would represent a shift away from Japan’s defense-oriented security stance. A controversial idea raised earlier this year by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to consider a NATO-style nuclear weapons-sharing deal with the United States was not part of the proposal.
Perhaps most crucially, the proposal recommends a doubling of defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product — 1% has long been an unspoken rule — over five years. Such a move would put it on par with spending by NATO countries and help pay for the costs of new capabilities.
In terms of the documents themselves, the proposal calls for the formulation of a "National Defense Strategy" similar to the one used by the U.S. to replace the NDPG and a "Defense Force Development Plan" in place of the MTDP, with the documents covering a 10-year period that leaves the door open to earlier revisions.
The government plans to complete the review of the three existing documents by the end of the year.
‘Counterstrike capabilities’
With a unanimous recommendation by the LDP panel in charge of the proposal, a long debate now appears to be winding down over Japan developing the ability to strike enemy bases.
Kishida and others have vowed not to rule out any options for bolstering the country’s defenses, with the prime minister saying in a January policy speech that one possibility could be acquiring the so-called “enemy base attack capability."
That term, however, was viewed by some in the LDP as failing to differentiate it from pre-emptive strike capabilities, which unlike the use of minimal self-defense is banned under Japan’s pacifist Constitution. Ultimately, the party recommended that the government use the term "counterstrike capabilities" in an attempt to avoid misconceptions among the public and to placate LDP junior coalition partner Komeito, which has been cool toward the move ahead of this summer’s Upper House election.
Although Japan's missile-defense strategy has long focused on intercepting enemy missiles, the increasingly sophisticated hypersonic and trajectory-shifting weapons being deployed by China and North Korea mean that "interceptors alone may not be enough to defend Japan," the LDP said in the proposal.
Acquiring counterstrike capabilities that can target both enemy bases and command posts, lawmakers say, would give Japan more options for retaliating against mobile- and submarine-launched missiles and serve as a deterrent against possible attacks. It would also fulfill a key pledge to the United States to bolster Japan’s defenses and take a larger defense role in the alliance.
Although public opinion in support of bolstering defense capabilities has surged, a poll earlier this month by the Yomiuri Shimbun found an even split — 46% in favor and 46% opposed — on the issue of Japan acquiring "enemy base strike capabilities." It’s unclear if the name change will boost support, but proponents have acknowledged that more must be done to explain what the capabilities would entail.
Break from precedent on defense spending
The recommendation to aim to spend 2% of GDP on defense within five years represents another potential break from precedents.
Japan has long adhered to an unwritten rule that defense budgets remain below or near 1% of GDP as part of its defense-oriented posture. But proponents of the 2% move have pointed to spending hikes by a number of U.S. allies following the invasion of Ukraine.
According to the proposal, it is “extremely important for Japan to secure the necessary defense capabilities in a timely manner,” considering that the security environment around the country “is expected to become even more severe over the next five to 10 years.”
Setting a 2% target would put Japan in line with NATO countries, a point repeatedly noted by supporters, as Tokyo seeks “to achieve the budget level necessary to fundamentally strengthen its defense capability” within five years.
Among NATO nations, the recommendation specifically noted Germany’s own stunning announcement in late February that it would massively boost its defense budgets — a historic policy shift triggered by the war in Ukraine.
Experts had widely expected the move to impact Japan, with its many similarities to Germany.
“It is particularly noteworthy that even Germany, which has not placed much emphasis on boosting its defense budgets since the end of the Cold War, has made a major change in policy,” the proposal said.
“In an age when no single country can protect its own security, this is an expression of the firm will of the member countries to defend the international order, and it is also a sign that Japan, too, must take seriously the efforts of other countries to strengthen their defense capabilities,” it added.
Unlike the divide over strike capabilities, public opinion is shifting in favor of boosted defense spending in Japan. According to a survey by the Nikkei business daily from April 22 to 24, 55% of respondents were in favor of pumping defense spending up to 2% of GDP or more, while 33% were against.
But meeting the 2% target could prove daunting, especially within five years.
To do so, Japan would need to secure almost ¥11 trillion ($86 billion) annually to be spent on national security — more than twice as much as the record ¥5.4 trillion set aside for the current fiscal year.
Information from Kyodo added
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