• Reuters


When Russian soldiers crossed the border to fight with rebels in Ukraine earlier this year, Moscow said they had not been deployed but had gone on their own vacation time.

When Estonia was the victim of a cyberattack in 2007 and blamed Moscow, the Kremlin responded that it could not control patriotic Russian hackers.

Western strategists who built their defenses to counter a massive invasion, nuclear missiles or terrorism are still trying to work out how to cope with this sort of threat that disrupts and destabilizes from behind a mask of deniability.

After soldiers without insignia took control in Crimea in eastern Ukraine last March, Western military officials developed their own nickname for Russian personnel operating in unmarked uniforms or in plainclothes: Little Green Men.

NATO is considering how to counter such “ambiguous warfare” techniques should Russian President Vladimir Putin try something similar in the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. It has deployed some U.S. and allied tanks and planes there to signal NATO’s commitment to defend all its members with force and is considering bolstering police to the Baltic to help detect any Russian infiltration.

Military experts say Russia’s unconventional strategy on its western flank is proving remarkably effective, and it has recently been combined with a global show of force on a scale unseen since the Cold War.

Moscow’s underlying point, Western analysts say, is clear: As it reasserts its influence over border countries, Russia is reminding the West of how cataclysmic the consequences of military intervention could be.

“Putin is taking the measure of the West’s willingness to keep exerting pressure on Ukraine,” said Nikolas Gvosdev, professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island.

Many officials and experts say privately that both the West and the government in Kiev ultimately will have to accept greater federalism and a Russian influence in eastern Ukraine. The issue will then be whether Putin interprets it as a sign of weakness and a green light to consider similar tactics against NATO members like the Baltic states.

“It’s not quite a new Cold War, but it’s a very different situation to where we were a few years ago,” said Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official. “I don’t think we’ve yet formulated a proper strategy for dealing with that.”

The West’s biggest response to Moscow’s actions has been financial sanctions on Russian firms and individuals and the new, if limited, military deployments in Eastern Europe.

U.S. Supreme Allied Commander Philip Breedlove makes clear covert infiltration by Russia could draw a military response under Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, which sees an attack on one member as an attack on the entire alliance. .

The emphasis for NATO in Europe, home to more than half the world’s atomic weapons, remains detecting any Russian initiatives early and responding firmly to avert any risk of actual war.

“What you have to remember is that there is simply no option for a conventional war with Russia,” said one former official. “It is either unconventional like this or it is likely to become something much worse.”

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