Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Restoration Party) is stumbling into Sunday's Lower House election with polls showing it will pick up just a fraction of the seats it was eyeing, as internal squabbles have sown confusion and distrust among voters.
However, with the Liberal Democratic Party predicted to win up to 300 seats and plans already afoot to again form a coalition government with New Komeito, the question now is whether Nippon Ishin or what's left of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan might join that bloc to form a two-thirds supermajority capable of overriding Upper House vetoes.
Nippon Ishin's star has fallen rapidly. Six months ago, party leaders were talking about fielding around 350 candidates and capturing a majority in the Lower House. At the time, most pundits thought Nippon Ishin would end up with somewhere in the region of 100 to 150 seats.