Farmers are up in arms about the possibility that the government will participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, which would remove import tariffs on products from member countries. In particular, rice farmers say that allowing cheaper foreign rice into Japan would wipe them out, which is probably true for most of them.
Some ambitious high-grade rice producers are determined to meet the challenge not only in Japan, but overseas, as well. The rice collective Beisist Shonan is already selling its expensive brand in Taiwan and Europe. One company in Kobe called Shinmei has a plan to sell 1,200 tons of 2010 rice overseas, which is 870 more tons than they sold of 2009 rice. The company projects that it will export 10,000 tons by 2018. But those companies represent a small portion of rice farmers, the vast majority of whom are part-timers whose methods aren't very efficient.
At present, the farm sector contributes about ¥10 trillion to Japan's economy every year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Foresty and Fisheries, which estimates that the sector will lose about ¥4.1 trillion if Japan joins TPP. In addition, Japan's food self-sufficiency rate will drop from 40 percent to 14 percent. About 10 percent of the rice produced in Japan is high-grade (Niigata Koshihikari, organic brands, etc.) and is thus considered invulnerable to foreign imports. Nevertheless, the ministry estimates the price will drop from the current average of ¥280 per kg to ¥177 retail. The remaining 90 percent of Japanese rice, which will compete directly with foreign brands, costs now about ¥247 per kg.