When the government submitted a set of emergency-response bills to the Diet in April, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was breaking a decades-long taboo under the war-renouncing Constitution.
But as the 192-day Diet session closes Wednesday, momentum for enactment of the contentious legislation appears to be quickly waning.
The first of its kind since the war, the legislation would stipulate how Japan can respond to a military attack, and would give the prime minister clear powers to ensure the Self-Defense Forces react smoothly in such an emergency.
Although Koizumi and top leaders of his Liberal Democratic Party agreed Monday that they should try to have the legislation enacted in the next Diet session, which is expected to convene in the fall, some in the ruling alliance say it is unclear whether the bills will receive priority status in the near future.
Koizumi was initially determined to push the legislation through this session, and at one point the bills appeared headed for at least Lower House approval.
But as experts point out, Koizumi failed to build solid support for the bills even from within the LDP.
"The main reason (the legislation failed) is that the LDP's largest faction, led by former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, did not cooperate," said Kaoru Okano, former president of Meiji University. "The party was divided over the issue."
The lack of cooperation clearly came out in remarks by former LDP Secretary General Hiromu Nonaka, a heavyweight in the faction, Okano said.
When the bills were submitted to the LDP for final approval before being sent to the Diet, Nonaka was openly critical, and he hinted he may not support the legislation when it is put to a Diet vote.
He cautioned in particular that the legislation, while giving the national government greater powers, lacks provisions for evacuating civilians and other matters pertaining to their lives, and merely urges additional legislation on these issues within two years.
"(If an emergency takes place before the additional legislation is prepared), the government would have to deal with such matters beyond the framework of the law, and that is very dangerous," Nonaka said.
Although such voices were initially limited to Nonaka and a few other lawmakers, dissent grew within the LDP, particularly in the Hashimoto faction, as deliberations on the bills hit a snag.
When the opposition camp boycotted the Lower House committee debate, LDP leaders, led by Koizumi's key ally and party secretary general, Taku Yamasaki, were forced to halt preparations for putting the bills to a committee vote.
Nonaka suggested during a lecture meeting in early July that the legislation should be scrapped altogether. "We have come to a time when we should quietly reconsider bills that prioritize the activities of the SDF (over protection of citizens)."
Koizumi eventually had to sideline the legislation when he became embroiled in a standoff with LDP members opposed to the postal system deregulation bills, which he described as necessary for his economic reforms.
While the postal bills were passed in late July following a series of compromises between Koizumi and his opponents in the LDP, the clock ran out for the attack-response legislation.
At the outset of the Diet debate on the defense bills, Koizumi indicated he might offer to revise the legislation if the opposition camp, in particular the Democratic Party of Japan, was ready to support it.
The DPJ was seen as wavering on its response to the legislation.
Although the party did agree Japan needs to have legislation to spell out how it can respond to an attack, it eventually decided to oppose the government-sponsored bills, calling them ambiguous and insufficient.
At one point, Katsuya Okada, DPJ policy affairs chief, submitted a paper to the government asking 24 questions about the legislation -- a move considered as a sign that the party might be ready to discuss a compromise.
But then he came under criticism from many of his DPJ colleagues for making such a move when the party was still debating the matter.
Then gaffes and blunders by government officials put the opposition camp on the offensive, disrupting Diet proceedings and further delaying debate on the legislation.
In June, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda caused a furor by suggesting to reporters that it is possible that Japan may abandon its decades-old nonnuclear principles.
Also, it was revealed that Defense Agency officials compiled files on people who sought the disclosure of agency information.
In both cases, opposition lawmakers called for a full explanation by the government at the Lower House committee debating the defense bills.
Some critics have also said Koizumi's failure to get the legislation enacted in the now closing Diet session reflects the fall of his political power.
In a recent Asahi Shimbun survey, Koizumi's public approval rating recovered slightly to 47 percent, but it is still far below the 80 percent range he enjoyed when he took office in April 2001.
In October, when Koizumi's support rate still topped 70 percent, he succeeded in getting a bill passed that paved the way for dispatching SDF contingents for providing logistic support of the U.S.-led military operation in Afghanistan following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, in only three weeks after it was submitted to the Diet.
Yamasaki, an influential lawmaker and strong advocate of the attack-response legislation, apparently tried to get the bills passed while Koizumi was still highly popular and while public awareness of crisis management was running strong following the terror attacks in the U.S.
But many say Yamasaki's lack of leadership thwarted the legislation. The LDP's No. 2 man is supposed to act as a mediator between the prime minister and the ruling parties.
"But after the weekly magazine Shukan Bunshun published repeated stories about Yamasaki's extramarital affairs in April, the scandal seemed to occupy most of his attention," a senior member of one of the ruling parties said.
Although the government and ruling bloc executives agreed to carry the legislation over to the next extraordinary Diet session, its fate is now uncertain.
"The (next Diet session in the fall) is expected to focus on the economy, including (an anticipated) supplementary budget," a senior member of New Komeito said. "Because there is not enough time, the emergency legislation may not be enacted until the next regular session (that convenes in January)."
To salvage the bills, Shinzo Abe, deputy chief Cabinet secretary, said last week that the government will outline legislation concerning the evacuation and protection of citizens in the event of an attack.
He said the outline will be drawn up in time for the fall Diet session. An LDP executive expressed hope that once that legislation is prepared, the DPJ may join talks with the ruling bloc on possible revisions to the defense bills.
But political pundits say concrete discussions on the issue will probably not proceed quickly, especially as political attention shifts to fiscal 2003 budget issues, a Cabinet reshuffle expected in late September and Diet by-elections in October.
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