The Nikkei average, which hit an all-time high of 38,915.87 on the final trading day of 1989, has been languishing at around 10,000 in recent months.

The 225-issue average fell to 9,475.60 on Feb. 5, slipping below the Sept. 17 mark of 9,504.41, which had itself constituted an 18-year low.

The market may be signaling that an economic recovery previously expected this spring may not occur until after this summer.

One theory is that markets anticipate the future course of events. And if the markets, as many contend, foreshadow developments in the pipeline six months ahead, the tumble early this month can be taken to indicate that few market players are now buying on expectations of a recovery.

The Tokyo market has taken little comfort from the package of measures being worked out by the government to fight deflation.

Unless the government OKs additional injections of public funds into banks before the March end of the current fiscal year, and unless the Bank of Japan turns quickly in favor of introducing an inflation target, investors will find little cause to celebrate.

Conversely, when the market is convinced of an early end to a deflationary spiral, major market players will move in, prompting foreign investors to readjust their oversold positions.

The market is looking to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi for positive leadership to have his agenda fully carried out by the government.

When the fiscal 2002 budget clears the Lower House, presumably early next month, the market could begin to adopt a positive tone overall, counting on a supplementary spending plan to be drawn up later in the year. High-priced activity may then ensue.

Still, in the current market environment, investors are playing it safe, remaining selective in terms of their new stock picks. They are now opting for stocks that have shown strong resistance to downward pressure for years.

Of all the shares listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's first section, 48 issues have remained immune to the market's deep slide.

Rohm topped the list of gainers with a 611 percent rise in the past 12 years, followed by Murata Manufacturing with a 253 percent gain and Honda Motor with a 190 percent increase.