First in a series

Staff writer

If the nearly 170 nations meeting next week in Kyoto finally agree on how to curb greenhouse gas emissions, Japan might breathe a sigh of relief for completing the demanding task of hosting the Third Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.

At the same time, however, it would put Japan on a long and difficult road toward actually delivering whatever promises it makes with the rest of the world.

In Kyoto, industrialized nations hope to set legally binding targets for reducing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions starting in 2000, and Japan, the world's fourth largest producer of greenhouse gases, will be required to shoulder its fair portion of responsibility for curtailing global warming.

In October, Japan presented a complex formula to set country-by-country differentiated targets for reducing carbon dioxide and two other greenhouse gases. The scheme would oblige Japan to curb greenhouse gas emissions -- 96 percent of which are carbon dioxide -- by 2.5 percent from 1990 levels. But the proposal is flexible by two percentage points, meaning Japan would only be legally bound to a cut of 0.5 percent.

The proposal has invited fierce criticism both at home and abroad for being too modest to help combat global warming. Given the rising trend in the nation's energy consumption, however, the government insists the proposed 2.5 percent reduction target is far more difficult than the figure might suggest.

Japan's carbon dioxide emissions originating from the use of energy, which represents more than 90 percent of overall emissions, amounted to 3.14 million tons in 1996 as measured in carbon converted weight, compared with 2.87 million tons in 1990.

Provided that no additional measures are implemented, the government estimates Japan's energy-oriented carbon dioxide emissions will reach 3.47 million tons in 2010, exceeding the 1990 level by 20 percent. In other words, to merely stabilize carbon dioxide emissions at 1990 levels, the nation must effectively curb emissions by 20 percent.

The government has already put forward a range of measures to curb energy consumption in each of three major sectors of carbon dioxide emissions: industry, households and transportation. For instance, the government's package calls on industry to cut energy consumption by 7 percent from the current level over the next 13 years.

In addition, manufacturers will soon be required by law to improve the energy efficiency of their products, including cars and household appliances, to help tame carbon dioxide emissions in the household and transportation sectors. The government is also counting on individuals to make voluntary energy conservation efforts by drastically changing wasteful lifestyles.

If no visible results are achieved by around 2005, the government will consider implementing mandatory restrictions, such as banning production of air conditioners that can cool temperatures below 28 degrees, according to the package.

With numerous meticulous measures fully taken into account, however, the proposed package will save the energy equivalent of 56 million kiloliters of crude oil, just enough to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions at the 1990 level, government officials said. To make further reductions, they said, new energy conservation technology must be developed.

Kenzo Tsutsumi, senior researcher at the Japan Research Institute, points out that Japanese manufacturers, while achieving remarkable production line energy efficiency, have done little to improve energy efficiency in other areas in their plants.

"Factory maintenance, such as lighting and air conditioning for manufacturing plants, remains a huge blind spot," he said. "And there remains plenty of potential for improving energy efficiency in these areas." What the government must do to exploit the potential, he said, is provide tax breaks and other economic incentives to encourage investment in energy conservation.

The Citizens Alliance for Saving the Atmosphere and Earth, a nongovernmental organization, estimates that in the next 13 years Japan has the ability to cut overall carbon dioxide emissions by more than 20 percent from 1990 levels -- if the government opts for the right policies.

The group, whose members include environment researchers, claims such a goal can be achieved by adopting 91 technological advances already available or expected to be introduced on a substantial scale before the target year. To promote the use of potentially costly new technologies and products, the organization is proposing that the government use tax incentives and disincentives in addition to restrictions and subsidies.

But the government's energy conservation package is a combination of reinforced state controls and greater voluntary efforts by industry. A carbon tax is not included because the government believes such a levy would drive some of the nation's leading industries out of Japan.

Takamitsu Sawa, director of Kyoto University's Institute of Economic Research, however, calls these concerns unwarranted, urging the government to give priority to economic measures, especially tax incentives and disincentives. To combat global warming, he said, there are three approaches:

1) Industry assumes responsibility;

2) the government takes control;

3) Economic measures are adopted to utilize market mechanisms.

"The first option could have been effective when sector-by-sector economic organizations had strong control over member companies," he said. "But it will no longer work because sectoral borders are diminishing fast amid the ongoing deregulation. The second option must be ruled out in a capitalistic economy. Thus, the third option should be the natural choice."