Popularity polls for the next leader of the Liberal Democratic Party will begin surfacing nonstop as we approach the party’s presidential election on Oct. 4. Great effort will be expended in interpreting these polls, even though they are meaningless, as Japan does not directly elect its prime minister.
Each political party selects its leader based on its own rules. The only poll that matters would be of party rank-and-file members and sitting LDP legislators in both houses of parliament. Polls of that sort are impossible, as LDP rank-and-file membership is not made public. The LDP has yet to announce how many party members are eligible, but it is likely under 1 million, as over 10% of its members left from 2023 to the end of 2024.
According to Kyodo, a left-leaning wire service, former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi is in first (28%), farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi second (22.5%), Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi is well back at 11%, followed by single digits for former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi. They conclude this will be a race between the "young reformist" Koizumi and "Abe-protege and hawkish conservative" Takaichi.
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