It is hard to appreciate how strong the Japan-U.S. relationship is right now.

The two governments regularly refer to “the unprecedented strength of the alliance,” and with good reason. Both countries are working more closely together across a range of issues and institutions, bilaterally and multilaterally. There has never before been the convergence of ideas and capabilities as in this moment.

Sustaining this relationship will be tough. Three distinct problems loom over this partnership: the prospect of Japanese political instability that focuses the government’s attention on internal concerns; the failure to make critical structural changes needed to push alliance cooperation to the next level; and the 2024 U.S. presidential election.