More flash than substance in Kishida’s Cabinet reshuffle

In his second Cabinet shake-up, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida brought in 11 first-time ministers, swapped out both the foreign and defense ministers and appointed the most women to senior billets since 2014.

At least on paper, this Cabinet reshuffle appeared to be one of the most dynamic of the past decade. But a closer look reveals that this was little more than a repackaging of the same product. The reshuffle was consistent with past Liberal Democratic Party practices and portends a continuation of status quo policies and initiatives.

For those in favor of the ruling LDP’s existing policy designs, that will probably come as good news, but perhaps not for those hoping for substantive reforms. What this means for the Kishida administration is that it is likely to enjoy a temporary bump in the polls, but that will soon level off as the realization sets in that this Cabinet is set to deliver more of the same.

What does it mean to have 11 first-time ministers?

The appointment of 11 first-time Cabinet ministers is sure to lead many to believe that this is a substantive refresh of the Kishida administration. However, “first-time ministers” does not mean “young.” In fact, four of them are in their 70s. That’s why this number should not suggest that Kishida is bringing youthful energy or ideas into the Cabinet; rather, most of those 11 are simply politicians whose place in line has come up to receive a Cabinet posting.

Further, few of the most influential positions saw changes during this reshuffle. This includes the LDP secretary-general, the chief Cabinet secretary and minister of the economy.

Meanwhile, the other core cast of political characters who have become mainstays in the public eye such as Koichi Hagiuda, Sanae Takaichi and Taro Kono all remained in their previous positions.

What this means is that the Kishida administration’s core policy direction is unlikely to change in any substantive way. This is not just because the new ministers will have little influence on the LDP’s overall policy designs, but the administration is unlikely to push untested appointees to field difficult questions during parliamentary interpellations.

In other words, the new ministers will not be asked to champion dynamic legislation, because gaffes and failure to articulate contentious policies have proven as surefire ways to erode public confidence in an administration.

Another risk is that all 11 new ministers will face media scrutiny upon joining the Cabinet. The domestic political tabloids are known for gathering dirt on members of parliament, waiting until those lawmakers receive a prominent posting before running their stories. That reporting can lead to scandals and near-term resignations. Many new Cabinet ministers have fallen victim to those tactics.

What is the significance of the five Cabinet postings for women?

Probably the most meaningful outcome of this reshuffle was the Kishida administration’s effort to bring more female lawmakers into the Cabinet. This can be a difficult task for an LDP prime minister because of the relatively few female parliamentarians in the party and their lack of seniority within the ranks.

There is a long waiting list for LDP members who desire a Cabinet-level posting and the general standard for the party is that Lower House members are not eligible for consideration until they have won at least five elections, while Upper House members must win at least three.

Kishida had to buck that trend to elevate several of the new female ministers ahead of schedule in granting them appointments. In doing so, Kishida ensured that this Cabinet has the most women since 2014.

Was this an unusual Cabinet reshuffle?

While this Cabinet reshuffle may seem to be a break from precedent, that is only because the past few reshuffles have been so undramatic. In the past, it was common to see most of the less-prominent Cabinet ministers get swapped out to ensure that as many politicians as possible are receiving their dues.

One other factor that is important is the role of factional politics. Within the LDP are formal factions, and traditional Cabinet appointments are based on a faction’s size relative to the party.

Every faction earned a spot among the top postings — even the Moriyama faction, which continues to teeter on the brink of dissolution — and the breakdowns largely aligned with the size of the factions. The exception to that was the Kishida faction, which only received two of the major appointments. Meanwhile, the number of nonaffiliated lawmakers dropped by 50% in another illustration of the importance of factional affiliation as a prerequisite to earning appointments in LDP-run governments.

The impact of factional politics is likely a reflection of the fact that this will probably be the last substantive Cabinet reshuffle before the 2024 LDP presidential race. Since party presidential elections are so dependent upon factional support, it is unsurprising that factions were so heavily represented in this Cabinet reshuffle.

What do we make of the foreign and defense ministers being replaced?

Many observers overseas will likely be heavily focused on the changeover atop the defense and foreign ministers. This is especially true as North Korea just launched two more ballistic missiles and Kim Jong Un met with Vladimir Putin in what appears to be part of a deepening of ties between China, Russia and North Korea — all countries that the Kishida administration has identified as Japan’s most significant security risks. Then what should we make of all this?

For the foreign minister position, it was more surprising to see Yoshimasa Hayashi not receive another ministerial billet than having Yoko Kamikawa take his place. Hayashi is a steady hand in the Cabinet and a veteran member of Kishida’s faction; however, Hayashi may be paying penance for his right to take Abe’s old district seat in the next Lower House election. Hayashi still has aspirations of becoming prime minister, so he may be having to sit outside the Cabinet until after the next Lower House vote.

Kamikawa is an interesting choice because she is essentially a female version of Hayashi. Both she and Hayashi were Harvard graduates who are veteran members of Kishida’s faction and both have demonstrated reliability in their ministerial postings. For Kamikawa, she had previously served as the minister of justice multiple times, even playing the role of “fixer” when a previous minister had to resign. She is poised to slide right into the foreign minister position without any major disruption to ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Meanwhile, Yasukazu Hamada was a steady hand atop the Defense Ministry, but he is not a power player inside the LDP. He has no factional affiliation and there are no current defense initiatives that require his level of experience and competency to argue in the parliament. In other words, the risk of bringing in a new defense minister is relatively low.

That risk is even lower because his replacement, Minoru Kihara, is not a novice in Japanese defense policies or Cabinet machinations. Kihara has held several subcabinet positions since 2012, including a stint as the parliamentary vice-minister of defense. From a strategic perspective, observers should not expect to see major shifts in defense policy implementation, but it is unknown if Kihara will be as sure-handed as Hamada in responding to security incidents or any public scrutiny that may arise.

What comes next?

With the Cabinet reshuffle done, the major scheduled events on the political calendar include the extraordinary session of the parliament that will likely run from October to December; the ordinary session of the parliament that usually extends from January to June; and the LDP party presidential race in September 2024. Somewhere along that time, we may see Kishida dissolve the parliament and call for a snap election. Whether or not that happens will be largely dependent on public opinion. The higher the public opinion, the more likely a snap election becomes.

This Cabinet reshuffle may contribute to a temporary boost in polling numbers. But already, Kishida has a liability in the name of Yuko Obuchi, who was named election strategy chairperson for the LDP. Obuchi is the daughter of the late-Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and rose through the ranks quickly after succeeding her father’s seat. But shortly after her appointment, journalists broke a story about improper handling of funds. This money scandal led to her resignation and a prolonged stint in political purgatory.

Now back in the top echelon, the spotlight is already on Obuchi for her previous money scandal, leading her to deliver a teary-eyed speech to communicate remorse in her first remarks upon taking the party posting. Only time will tell if the public accepts her return to prominence.

The combination of Obuchi’s return to a prominent position and the lack of truly meaningful changes among the Cabinet’s power broker positions suggests that any support gained will be lost fairly quickly.

Ultimately, this reshuffle demonstrated a fundamental truth about Kishida's approach to leadership: He is not playing to win; rather, he is playing not to lose.

There is a difference in politics — and that will become all the more apparent as the party presidential race approaches. In the meantime, he will hope that his new appointees will do just enough to hold his administration in good stead with the public.