In the past two years, predictions of the timing of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan have proliferated, ranging from the near future to 2049, the centenary of the People’s Republic of China and the target year for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
It is implied that the annexation of Taiwan, which Beijing prefers to think of as “reunification,” must occur to consummate the middle kingdom’s restoration.
Four-star U.S. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan became the latest heavyweight to weigh in on the issue when a memo he prepared leaked in late January. He wrote of a gut feeling “that we will fight in 2025,” though he emphasized, “I hope I am wrong.” Minihan seems to expect political tumult ahead — the memo mentioned “a distracted America” — that could provide China with a window of opportunity to attack Taiwan. Both the U.S. and Taiwan will hold presidential elections in 2024.