In the second quarter of 2021, China’s GDP grew by 7.9% year on year. That was a relatively strong performance, especially given the enduring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy.
But, for China, it represents a disappointment: A Caixin survey of economists showed the median estimate for the second quarter was 8.2% growth.
Chinese economists broadly agree that China’s potential growth rate is 6%. So, taking into consideration the base effect, China’s year-on-year growth rate in the four quarters of 2021 should be 19.1%, 8.3%, 6.7% and 5.5%. Yet, in the first quarter, growth amounted to 18.3%. This weaker-than-expected performance is, to a significant extent, a result of official policy.