No one should have harbored any illusions about the fate of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces.
Still, the collapse of the Afghan military and the Taliban’s advance in recent weeks were more rapid than almost anyone imagined. Debate and the inevitable recriminations about “the loss of Afghanistan” will be long and bitter.
Considerably less attention will be paid to how Central and South Asian countries respond to the return of the Taliban, but those political dynamics, and the roles played by China and Russia, may well determine whether Afghanistan becomes a threat to the region and the wider world.