Policymakers and terrorism scholars are debating whether al-Qaida or Islamic State is the more dangerous threat to the United States and the West. After the various bombings and attacks across the West, many experts insist Islamic State is the more serious problem. That is a mistake. Al-Qaida presents the gravest long-term problem to the West.
Al-Qaida's ruthlessly pragmatic approach has placed it in a far better position to achieve its strategic objectives. It has proved more effective in taking advantage of U.S. policy in the Middle East, primarily in Syria, to legitimize itself as an armed force and, increasingly, as a viable political player.
The al-Qaida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, since rebranded Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, or JFS, is quietly morphing into a mainstream option in the broader panoply of rebel groups operating in Syria, even as Islamic State's caliphate continues to shrink and the United States and Russia spar over mistaken targets.