As the American withdrawal gains speed, there are fewer American troops in Iraq than in Afghanistan for the first time since 2003. By the end of August there will be no U.S. combat troops left in Iraq, though some tens of thousands of support troops will remain until next year. And still there is no new Iraqi government, although it is now four months since the election on March 7.
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden was in Baghdad recently urging Iraqi politicians to end the political deadlock, but America's influence over events in Iraq has been falling as fast as its troop numbers. In the end, the same broad coalition of Shiite Arabs and Kurds that ran the country before will probably rule again, excluding the Sunni Arabs, but it's unclear who will lead the new coalition.
The last election made Iraq's sectarian and ethnic rivalries even sharper, if that is possible. The corruption is universal and shameless. Dozens of people are still being killed by suicide bombers every week. But the country cannot really fail, because there is just so much oil.