HONG KONG — As the world economy reels from bad to worse, and economists go from talking of recession to swapping stories of the Great Depression of the 1930s, eyes turn to China and to what it might, can and should do in its newly emerging role as a global player both economically and politically. The answers may not be what the world wants to hear or in the best global interests.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the club of 30 rich industrialized countries, reports that many of the rich economies "are in or on the verge of a protracted recession of a magnitude not experienced since the early 1980s." If anything, OECD was being optimistic.
Even on the OECD's assumptions, 8 million more people will lose their jobs in the rich countries, and the United States, Europe and Japan will remain in recession until at least the middle of 2009, followed by a "languid" recovery. Any sharp changes in foreign exchange rates or rise in oil prices could prolong the agony.