Japan's political future hinges on the successor to Junichiro Koizumi, whose tenure as president of the governing Liberal Democratic Party and, hence, prime minister will end in four months. Opinion polls show Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe is by far the most popular potential contender for the premiership, but it is uncertain if he will win the LDP presidential election in September.
The question is whether the new leader will continue the policies of Koizumi's five-year reign or switch to a new course. Main issues in the LDP presidential election will be how to deal with the widening social divide resulting from Koizumi's reform programs and how to break a deadlock in Asian diplomacy stemming from the bitter feuds with China and South Korea over Koizumi's controversial visits to Yasukuni Shrine.
The major contenders to the premiership are, besides Abe, Foreign Minister Taro Aso, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda.