SINGAPORE -- From a Southeast Asian perspective, recent developments underscore an internal angst in Japan over the growing "China threat" and how Japan will come to terms with its military aggression of the 1930s and '40s. Meanwhile, debate continues in Japan on revising its "pacifist" Constitution and determining Tokyo's future international political and economic roles.

In an interview marking his 72nd birthday on Dec. 23, the Emperor called on Japan to "accurately understand" its history at the end of a year that had been marked by severe criticisms of Japan from abroad for Tokyo's failure to atone for its militaristic past. Strangely, this gesture may seem at odds with the general trend of public and governmental opinion emerging in Japan.

The Emperor's message to the Japanese people is significant. He recalled that "there were rarely peaceful times" from 1927 to 1945, and said, "I believe it is extremely important for the Japanese people to strive to accurately understand this past history along with the ensuing era. . . . I hope that knowledge of past facts will continue to be passed in a proper manner . . . and will be used for future benefit."

Coming at a time when Japan is struggling with the legacy of its Imperial past and its views on history, which appear out of sync with those held by the Chinese and Koreans, the Emperor's remarks are as significant as those he made in December 2001 on South Korea. At that time he acknowledged for the first time the possibility of Korean blood in the Imperial line -- previously a taboo subject in Japan.

Was the Dec. 23 interview an indication that the Emperor is playing the role of a peacemaking mediator at a time when the Koizumi government is clashing diplomatically with Beijing, Seoul and Pyongyang? Even more importantly, were his remarks intended to signal the Imperial family's concerns with rising nationalism in Japan and a shift to the right in both governmental policy and public opinion?

The Cabinet Office coincidentally published the alarming results of an opinion survey on that same weekend. It showed that the number of Japanese who held positive views of China and South Korea had fallen to a record low since since the annual survey first began in 1978. The October poll of 1,756 people showed a record 63.4 percent viewed China negatively, up from 58.2 percent. A record 71.2 percent felt that Sino-Japanese ties were in poor shape, up 10.2 percent.

The survey also found that the number of Japanese who viewed South Korea positively fell 5.6 percent to 51.1 percent, the first drop in four years. Some 50.9 percent felt that relations between their two countries were not in good shape, an increase of 16 percent. By contrast, the survey found that positive feelings toward the United States rose by 1.4 percent to 73.2 percent, and 80.9 percent considered ties with Washington to be good, a rise of 4.2 percent.

The opinion survey confirms a shift in Japanese public opinion away from Asia, particularly China and South Korea, and toward the United States. Government policy has shifted in a similar manner, as shown by Foreign Minister Taro Aso's maiden "U.S. first, Asia second" foreign-policy speech in November and the dismal role Tokyo played at the recent East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur, where it was sidelined by China and India.

The "China threat" has surfaced widely in the Japanese media, in parallel with Aso's Dec. 22 branding of Beijing's military buildup as a threat, a comment that caused Sino-Japanese relations to further chill. The publication of anti-China and anti-Korea cartoons and "manga" comic books is growing. In some of these popular manga, Chinese have been portrayed as barbaric and as "flesh eaters" (during the Japanese occupation of Nanjing), and Koreans are portrayed as being inferior to Japanese (hence a possible justification for Japan's 35-year occupation of the Korean Peninsula.

The Japanese media have also been using two environmental incidents to suggest that the "threat" posed by China is not just military. The media highlighted the recent benzene spill in China's Heilongjiang Province, suggesting that it could eventually pollute northern Japanese waters. They also focused on the problem of "giant jellyfish" -- which seems to have originated in the area where China's polluted rivers flow into the sea -- saying it could affect Japanese fishing grounds in the south.

The Emperor's remarks, aimed at bolstering Japan's ties with its neighbors, have come at a time when Japanese views of China and the Koreas are growing increasingly negative amid controversies over Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Yasukuni Shrine visits, Japanese history textbooks, Japan's quest for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council and other diplomatic problems that plague Tokyo's ties with Beijing and Seoul.

Japanese society clearly shows anxiety today as it debates social reforms and constitutional issues, as reflected in the sentiments voiced by the Emperor and the government. Southeast Asians are contemplating the possible implications and consequences that this debate holds for the region.