Looking at Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's popularity and its spillover effect on the Liberal Democratic Party, one has to be impressed. Recent highly popular actions, such as the prime minister's decision not to challenge a court decision awarding compensation to leprosy victims, only add to the notoriety and bolster his support among the people. But the current boom could ebb as fast as it arose. Keeping his party in power and maintaining support when decisions are undertaken is yet another matter.

Taking a closer look at the "new" LDP, one comes to the conclusion that all is not well. Koizumi is interesting and has a personality. But being interesting is not the same as being influential and having a personality is not the same as having power. Key members of the old guard have voiced various criticisms toward the prime minister and certain Cabinet officials. The election in July is very important but so is the long-term survival of the party. One could almost paraphrase Alfred Lord Tennyson's poem, "The Charge of the Light Brigade":

Half a league, Half a league, Half a league onward. All in the Valley of Death Rode the six hundred . . .

The poem, recalling the exploits of a British cavalry unit during the Crimean War (1854-56), focuses on a galloping charge by saber-carrying horsemen against enemy artillery. The weapons and tactics employed by the Light Brigade seemed ill suited to the task at hand.

In today's Japan, the poem might be titled "The Charge of the LDP." Instead of: Canon to the right of them, Canon to the left of them, Cannon in front of them One would write: Scandal to the right of them, Indifference to the left of them, Deficits in front of them.

It is important to remember that despite the odds and miscalculation by those in command, the Light Brigade did have a dramatic charge. There were survivors, acts of courage and bravery, but the costs were staggering. They kept their formation and they battled hard but their tactics were outdated.

Leadership vs. management

It is not that the LDP is not taking action. The big questions: Is it the right action? Is this just another charge?

Up till now, the LDP has mainly applied management to a situation that required leadership but the skill sets are distinctly different. Will the old guard allow Koizumi to lead?

Management is about having everything in its place, order and regulation, setting ways of doing things and making sure that they get done. The LDP and the bureaucrats have been trying to manage their way out of an economic and political situation that demands leadership.

From the early 1950s to the 1980s, there was frequently little need of leadership in Japan. The national goal was well focused: Catch up with the West, then catch up with the United States. With little defense expenditure, money could be poured into the economy. The education system, business, and government had resources that had to be managed. And they were managed well until the late 1980s.

The skills needed to get to the top are not the same as the skills required to maintain a position there. The inward focus, "all for one," was fine for Japan until it became a world leader. At that point, the nation had to integrate others into the economy, adjust to rapid technological developments, and focus more internationally.

By 1990, Japan and the LDP were in need of change. Leadership is what brings about transformation. But the resources were no longer there. The LDP money and programs that took care of the farmer and the city dweller could no longer be afforded. There were too many demands and too few resources. The LDP's political rationale for being was fading. Through coalitions and inter-party arrangements, coupled with a lack of a viable political opposition, the LDP could hold on to power.

Unlike management, leadership is much more focused on bringing about change -- not preserving the status quo. Leaders have to focus on what alterations are needed and then get the people and organs of government focused on the new goals.

The role of the citizen

Leaders need followers. Leaders articulate the goals, and then get the people moving in the right direction. The Japanese people frequently complain, "We have no leaders." But citizens have not demanded the change that is necessary nor shown a willingness to endure the pain required. Again, one is reminded of the rank and file of the Light Brigade:

Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do or die, Into the Valley of Death Rode the six hundred

Within the Japanese political system there are personalities and talents capable of leading. It is very difficult now, as the old system decays, for them to come forward. Further, very few citizens want to be led at this point. They can criticize bureaucrats and politicians all they want, but they, too, bear some of the blame. Koizumi's popularity in the polls could -- but does not guarantee -- an increase in political participation by an inactive electorate.

Recently there has been much commentary concerning Japan's economy and deflationary spirals. However, there is also a downward political spiral that began in the early 1990s, impacting the ability of the LDP to rule. Former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa's election in 1993 was a major manifestation. The LDP's decision to get in bed with the Socialists and support Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama was another flare up. Despite putting salve on the wound, the disease is very much present and continues to eat away. There is no easy answer to the question, "How do you undertake major political and economic reform simultaneously?" It is a long and painful process.

Japan has the skill, knowledge base, talent and sophistication to heal itself. Perhaps all the talk of leadership will result in just that. But we may first have to watch the LDP -- as it is now constituted -- ride into "the jaws of death and the gates of hell." Will the rhetoric lead to a new reality? With little time for substantial progress and hard choices before the July Upper House election, personality and interest may well carry the day for the LDP. True change after that will require power and influence. Act one on the political stage has gotten our attention. We wait with keen interest to learn how the drama unfolds.