Predictions can be dangerous when Japan is involved.

The 1997 claim that Tokyo would persuade Moscow to accept Japan's territorial claims and conclude a peace treaty by 2000 now looks rather sad (though this column's prediction that Tokyo would eventually have to accept Moscow's 1956 compromise proposal over territory does seem on track).

Even sadder are the predictions that Japan's economy would overtake the United States by 2000, and that the 21st century would be Japan's. Currently, the sick Japanese economy seems in no shape to challenge anyone.