SEOUL -- Government transitions are good times for political analysts. Before the new team moves into office, these experts share their knowledge, make evaluations and sometimes even predictions. These days the newspapers are full explanations of what the new U.S. leadership might do and should not do. Others go further and offer unsolicited suggestions as to what should be done.
Regarding Northeast Asia, analysts concur in two points. First, they expect the new U.S. president to strengthen the alliance with Japan in an effort to cope with a rising China. Second, they assume that George W. Bush will take a tougher, more hardline approach toward the communist regime in North Korea.
U.S. policy continues to be crucial to political developments in this part of the world. But, it has become merely one factor out of many. Gone are the times -- quite fortunately -- when Americans blew their trumpet and the rest of the world danced to their tune. The shift in political weight is especially apparent in the Korean context. There are several indications that the center of the political and diplomatic decision-making process regarding strategy toward North Korea has moved from Washington to Seoul in recent years.