Following the return of Hong Kong in July 1997 and the return of Macau in December 1999, Beijing's attention will logically turn to Taiwan. The island's survival depends on preserving its technically advanced air force and enlisting the help of the United States.
China is constantly looking at ways to neutralize Taiwan's air defenses and keep the U.S. at arms's length. The cheapest and most effective option it has found so far is a combination of short-range ballistic missiles and long-range cruise missiles.
In one or two years' time, it will have finished developing the maneuverable short-range ballistic missiles, the M-11 (range 300 km), which has aerodynamic tail fins to make it maneuverable, and the M-9 (range 600 km), which has cold-gas controls for similar purposes. These missiles, possibly with global positioning and inertial navigation-guidance systems, could have an accuracy of 20 to 30 meters. They could descend from an altitude of 30 km and then be tipped over so that the angle of re-entry is more acute, or even vertical. That means they could hit targets in Taiwan currently thought to be secure on the eastern side of the 3,000-meter-high Chung Yang Shan (Central Mountains). If the missiles are armed with submunitions or mini-cruise missiles, they could easily punch holes in concrete runways at, for example, the Jiashan air base near Hualian in the northeast and Chihhong in the southeast. By the year 2000 or 2001, China will have enough accurate M-9 and M-11 missiles to neutralize most of Taiwan's air defenses and destroy its navy in ports such as Kaohsiung and Su-ao.