No rest for weary Ishiba as challenges await in parliament

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may have let out a sigh of relief after the budget finally cleared parliament earlier this week, but he has no time to rest as the latter half of the parliamentary session looks set to pile on more pressure.

In a news conference on Tuesday — exactly six months since he took office — Ishiba apologized for the uproar caused by his distribution of gift vouchers to rookie lawmakers, and underlined his commitment to fair and thorough debates in parliament.

“The outcomes we have achieved so far are the result of thorough deliberations with the opposition in parliament,” Ishiba said. “Moving forward, the government will continue to make every effort to ensure this kind of attitude stays in place.”

Amid dwindling approval ratings at home and political volatility abroad, the next few months of debate are poised to set the tone for an upcoming round of elections in the summer — the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in June and the Upper House election in July.

Ishiba on Tuesday announced the government will follow up on existing measures to ease the strain of price increases on households — including cash handouts to low-income households, subsidies on gasoline prices and government support to lower the price of rice.

Ahead of an election seen as unfavorable to the ruling coalition, calls had been growing for such government measures from the Liberal Democratic Party’s Upper House caucus and coalition partner Komeito.

Last Thursday, Ishiba apologized in front of the Upper House Budget Committee for his remarks on an anti-inflation package, allegedly during a meeting with Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito.

The opposition lambasted the government, arguing that such economic measures show a lack of confidence in the budget that just cleared parliament and only serve the LDP’s electoral goals.

The LDP’s positions on other policies set to dominate the political debate — the handling of corporate donations and a revision of the civil code to allow married couples to retain different surnames — have also drawn fire from the opposition.

On corporate donations, even after months of discussions, ruling and opposition parties weren’t able to reach a consensus before the end of the fiscal year, a deadline they themselves had set.

On Monday, the last day of the fiscal year, the LDP clinched a preliminary agreement with Komeito and the opposition Democratic Party for the People with the aim of boosting transparency over corporate endowments.

The threshold for disclosure of donor companies was brought down from an initial ¥10 million ($67,000) to ¥50,000 a year, in line with requests from Komeito and the DPP. Under pressure from the LDP, restrictions on the recipients and the capacity of the donations were left out.

The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has taken a hard-line approach on corporate donations.

Together with four other parties — including Nippon Ishin no Kai— the CDP has proposed a ban on corporate donations and the sale of tickets for fundraising parties, as well as a cap on the amount of yearly donations. However, the CDP's proposal allows endowments from noncorporate political entities.

While the votes of the DPP would be sufficient to approve the ruling coalition's proposal in the Lower House, the three parties are seeking a wider consensus across large swaths of the opposition, including the CDP.

Whether to allow married couples to retain different surnames also remains a contentious issue.

The LDP is grappling with a rift between those in favor of allowing surnames to be retained after marriage and those who oppose any drastic change to the current system. A party panel on the subject has met several times this year, but no substantial progress has been made.

Meanwhile, with an eye on Komeito — which has long been in favor of the introduction of a new system — the CDP has hinted it will draft a related bill that could gain the widest consensus possible in the parliamentary arena.

The LDP is expected to try to splinter the opposition camp on the issue of dual surnames, and possibly target the DPP or NIppon Ishin, as the two parties are internally conflicted over the matter.

On the other hand, any rushed move by the LDP could alienate sections of the party, and isolate voters in the upcoming Upper House election. Komeito’s approach to parliamentary deliberations is also expected to receive great scrutiny.

Toward the end of the session, all eyes will be on a potential no-confidence motion against the government.

If the opposition joins forces in the Lower House, the Ishiba administration could fall. However, the likelihood of that remains uncertain given the LDP's past and current success in luring opposition parties to its side.

Both Nippon Ishin and the DPP have repeatedly signaled they’re willing to serve as the LDP’s interlocutor in exchange for policy concessions they could tout to their supporters.

In such a context, the Upper House election in July will likely determine the fate of the Ishiba administration. With a minority in the Lower House, Ishiba can’t afford to lose any more political capital and further weaken the LDP’s position in the legislative arena.

On Tuesday, Ishiba dodged questions over whether he would dissolve the Lower House and call a double election in the summer or if he would try to court other opposition forces into the coalition.

“The decline in approval ratings is all my responsibility, I have no intention to blame anyone else for that,” Ishiba said. “There is nothing else I can do but to reflect on my mistakes and make a sincere effort to regain public trust.”

In less than four months, the public will be asked to determine whether these words are simply empty promises, or if they carry any weight.