Russian forces appeared to be packing up some military equipment at one of its most critical bases in Syria on Friday, in what could be a prelude to Moscow’s military withdrawal from the country in the wake of President Bashar Assad’s fall.

A New York Times analysis of satellite imagery of Syria’s Khmeimim air base near Latakia on Friday showed planes designed to transport heavy machinery prepared for loading and Russian military equipment apparently being packed up nearby. Verified videos also showed at least one convoy of Russian military vehicles on the move Friday.

The activity highlights the uncertainty of Moscow’s foothold in Syria after rebel forces ousted the Assad regime.

At the air base, two An-124 heavy transport planes were seen in Maxar satellite imagery with their nose cones lifted, being prepared for loading. The imagery also showed a Russian-made Ka-52 attack helicopter being dismantled, likely as preparation for transport. Components of a Russian-made S-400 air defense unit had also been moved near the planes.

Two videos verified by the Times also showed at least one convoy of Russian military vehicles moving north, near Damascus and Homs, in the direction of Khmeimim air base. The line of vehicles, stretching more than a half a kilometer, was largely made up of cargo trucks, armored personnel carriers, mobility vehicles and SUVs. It is unclear from the videos if they arrived at the base, or whether a significant portion of Russian soldiers and equipment may be preparing to depart Syria.

The Russian Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Under the Assad government that previously ruled Syria, Russia has for years maintained a military presence throughout the country, including the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base. The bases enable Russia to project its military power throughout the Mediterranean and into the Gulf.

U.S. officials said it would be a mistake to believe Russia was ready to give up on its bases in Syria. Russia would like, if it can, to maintain a long-term presence in Syria, including both its airfield and naval base, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive and evolving situation.

American officials said that Russia was scaling down its presence but not, so far, abandoning its positions. The officials cautioned that the situation was fluid and changing by the day.

Another Western official said that the drawdown the Russian military was doing in Syria was significant, since Russia is moving forces out of its bases.

Russia’s ties to Syria have roots in the Soviet Union’s support of Assad’s father, President Hafez Assad, in the 1970s.

Most recently, it intervened in Syria’s civil war with brutal bombing campaigns that helped Bashar Assad’s military defeat rebel groups that rose up against him. But after invading Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s focus shifted, and Moscow diverted resources to priorities closer to home, according to officials based in the Middle East.

Any Russian withdrawal from Syria would signal Moscow’s failure on both a practical and symbolic level, according to experts.

"The Russian army’s performance in Ukraine and the fall of Assad is an advertisement for the weakness of Russian military equipment and the weakness of Russian political support,” said Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

On a practical level, a diminished Russian military presence could threaten its direct access to the Mediterranean via Tartus, a deepwater port on Syria’s western coast. Satellite imagery and ship tracking data reviewed by the Times showed that Russian naval forces had withdrawn from the port earlier this week and that several of the ships were instead loitering several kilometers offshore.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times © 2025 The New York Times Company