“In this election, I’m running as an independent newcomer,” a man in his early 60s declares, as if to introduce himself in front of a few dozen people gathered in a supermarket parking lot in Tanabe, Wakayama Prefecture.
His words invite light laughter from the audience.
It’s a balmy Sunday morning, and the candidate is appealing to shoppers one week before the Oct. 27 general election.
But he needs no introduction. Hiroshige Seko has represented Wakayama in the Upper House for the last 26 years, holding crucial portfolios such as deputy chief cabinet secretary, economy minister and leader of the Upper House caucus of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, a force that has dominated Wakayama for decades.
Seko, a leading member of the faction once led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was regarded as one of the main actors behind the kickback scheme at the center of a recent slush funds scandal, and he was forced to leave the party in April. He has admitted to underreported funds of over ¥15 million but fiercely denied any personal involvement.
His decision to throw his hat into the ring as an independent candidate has bewildered constituents and catapulted the Wakayama No. 2 district — a newly established, largely rural district in an area that hasn’t seen a competitive election in ages — right to the top of the list of the most closely watched races in this weekend’s vote.
Wakayama No. 2 faces issues seen in many other rural areas across the country. It’s aging very fast, it faces a lingering infrastructure deficit and its primary sector — the area is famous for mandarin oranges and plums — has been hit severely by climate change and rising prices. A chronic shortage of successors is also threatening the livelihood of rural communities.
The issues at stake are so dominant that there are barely any differences in the political platforms put forward by each candidate.
In the local chapter of the LDP, Seko’s decision has drawn some sharp criticism.
“In his 30 years in parliament, he has only worked for himself, and never for his constituents,” a veteran LDP member of the Wakayama Prefectural Assembly said. “He says he wants to become prime minister, but he doesn’t have what it takes.”
Instead, local LDP members argue that Wakayama as a whole has greatly benefited from the presence of Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai — a political heavyweight who has long been a key figure in the prefecture — and his wide network and extensive influence in the political center of Nagatacho.
A case in point is a highway running through the prefecture that has dramatically improved access to its southwestern region — which many say came to be thanks to Nikai’s leverage.
Just weeks before Seko formally left the LDP, Nikai had announced his intention to retire from politics ahead of the next general election. In exchange for his retirement, the 85-year-old Nikai — a faction leader who underreported political funds of over ¥35 million — escaped formal party punishment. However, both his personal secretary and the accountant of his faction faced criminal charges.
But while the party heavyweight is exiting front-line politics, the name “Nikai” will still be on the ballot this weekend. Toshihiro Nikai’s third son, 46-year-old Nobuyasu Nikai, is running as the LDP’s official candidate in the district. While it’s his first run for public office, the younger Nikai has served as his father’s secretary for the last decade.
His succession was carefully planned. In April, the leaders of 21 of the prefecture’s cities and villages formally asked him to run. One month later, he announced his candidacy before receiving a formal endorsement from the LDP’s local chapter.
It’s no surprise then, that he can count on the support of many local business federations — a diverse mix ranging from medical associations to fisheries and agriculture cooperatives.
Speaking in front of a large crowd in the Wakayama town of Aridagawa on Monday, the younger Nikai — hoarse from days of campaigning in the vast district — promised his constituents that, like his father, he will make sure their voices are heard in the national arena.
The presence of many uniformed workers at the rally reinforced the notion that he can count on the backing of local business circles.
“Since the day I put my name forward for the race, I’ve visited many places and listened to the voices of many people, without missing a single day,” Nikai said. “That’s something I have been outperforming other candidates in.”
Yukihiro Iwamoto, the 65-year-old head of the local chamber of commerce, admitted that Seko enjoys solid name recognition in the prefecture, but said that Nobuyasu Nikai’s first-hand knowledge of politics, together with his youth, should reassure voters.
“We want him to work so that people can earn a living even in the countryside,” Iwamoto, a local soy sauce producer, said after the rally. “We need someone in the party to do that.”
On the heels of his father — who made the resilience of physical infrastructure one of his lifelong goals — the younger Nikai said that, if elected, he would do what he can to safeguard the resilience of peninsulas across Japan.
While it’s no doubt the younger Nikai enjoys a steady support base, a number of polls conducted in the last week have indicated that Seko has taken the lead in the race, prompting some apprehension ahead of the vote.
Due to population decline, the number of Lower House districts in Wakayama has been reduced from three to two for this election. The former Wakayama No. 3 district has been merged into the new No. 2 district, which now encompasses approximately half of the prefecture’s population and 90% of its total land area.
The elder Nikai has represented the former No. 3 district in parliament since the 1980s. However, voters in the former No. 2 district have never had a Nikai on the ballot until this election.
In fact, they have been returning Seko to the Upper House since 1998. Single-seat districts in Upper House elections correspond to the entire prefecture.
The LDP’s handling of the scandal and its endorsement of the younger Nikai have left scars among the party’s local supporters in Wakayama.
“The decision-making process was very old-style and lacked any transparency,” 49-year-old Keiichiro Sata, a resident of Kamitonda, said after listening to Seko’s speech. “Nikai didn’t take responsibility for his involvement in the scandal. It looked like all he wanted to do was to leave his seat to his son.”
Voicing his support for Seko, Sata complained that Nikai long prioritized the interests of specific sectors — construction, engineering and tourism — to the detriment of regular citizens.
While the younger Nikai is facing some criticism of political nepotism, his youth has also generated worries among voters that they may need to wait for years before he gains enough political influence to contribute to the district.
Taishi Hamaguchi, an LDP member of the prefectural assembly from the city of Shingu, noted that many constituents, who have voted for both Nikai and Seko for years, are puzzled by the current situation.
“I didn’t want them to face each other directly,” Hamaguchi said, underscoring that Seko’s decision had completely turned the tables. “I think some people might end up voting for Seko out of some sympathy for his position as an independent.”
Seko appears to be compensating for the absence of organized support from the LDP and local community by leveraging his own personal network.
On Monday, Abe’s widow, Akie Abe, spoke in his support at a campaign event in the city of Kushimoto, at the southernmost tip of Honshu. A crowd of supporters traveled to the city from across the prefecture to listen to her speech, where she revealed her own dilemma.
“Nikai senior, too, has been of great support to my husband, so originally I had mixed feelings about coming here. But I think my husband would have wanted me to be here,” she said.
Nikai served as the LDP’s secretary-general for five years under Abe and his successor, Yoshihide Suga, the longest tenure in the party’s history. Meanwhile, Seko was one of Abe’s closest confidants, supporting him as an aide during his first stint in power from 2006 to 2007, and later as deputy chief cabinet secretary and economy minister.
“Let’s help Seko become prime minister!” Abe told a cheering crowd.
The sight of a former LDP prime minister’s wife explicitly asking voters to support someone outside of the party might have been jarring to some. But it epitomizes the current state of a very fractured party facing its toughest election since it regained power in 2012.
Talk of a split in conservative votes doesn’t apply to areas like Wakayama, where a nonconservative vote seems practically nonexistent.
Support for the opposition will be split as well. Among the other three candidates running for office, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan’s candidate, Yuko Shinko, a former Wakayama city assembly member, will be competing against Japanese Communist Party candidate Fumiro Kusumoto, a former prefectural assembly member.
Constituents should be given a third option besides the two scandal-tainted conservative camps, one of Shinko’s aides said this week. But in rural districts like Wakayama No. 2, where organized voting and name recognition hold significant sway, there’s only so much a newcomer with few resources can do to make a case for their candidacy.
“It would have been a totally different scenario had the opposition fielded a heavyweight with national recognition,” a 66-year-old resident of Yuasa district said.
”Out here in the countryside, people only know the LDP, and they vote based on their personal interests,” he said. “It’s really a choice between the two.”
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