The Tokyo No. 1 district, at the heart of the capital, has always been a competitive electoral battleground for candidates of the two largest parties — the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
The district, which straddles Shinjuku and Chiyoda wards, has nine candidates vying for a single seat. But two candidates are the clear front-runners ahead of Sunday's Lower House election: Miki Yamada of the LDP, and veteran CDP lawmaker Banri Kaieda.
Yamada, who won the district seat in the last general election, is up against the wall for her involvement in a series of political slush fund scandals that has shaken the LDP since late last year.
The 50-year-old lawmaker, once a member of the faction led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was not officially punished by the party, but she was excluded from the party’s proportional representation bloc. That means she will lose her seat in the Lower House if she doesn’t win in the electoral district.
“The crisis of the LDP is also an opportunity for reform,” Yamada said last week. “I will begin by correcting myself and will take on this challenge with the determination not to cause any political distrust again.”
A former trade ministry bureaucrat, Yamada also promised to use her experience as parliamentary vice minister of foreign affairs to protect national interests through better diplomacy and defense.
Kaieda of the CDP is making the LDP's slush fund scandal the main focus of his campaign.
“(The LDP’s) reform plan is just a name and is full of loopholes. So in order to fundamentally abolish the problem of money and politics we will create drastic and effective political funding regulation laws,” Kaieda said last week. “The No. 1 priority is to conduct clean and transparent politics that is different from LDP’s politics engulfed in money.”
An economy-commentator-turned politician, Kaieda, 75, has served eight terms as the district's representative and served as president of the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan between 2012 to 2014.
Over the past four Lower House elections, contests for the district have been fought between the same two candidates.
In the last general election, in 2021, Yamada won against Kaieda by a slim margin of around 9,000 votes. Before that, in 2017, Kaieda came out on top by an even slimmer margin of around 3,000 votes. In both 2014 and 2012, Yamada defeated Kaieda, with the CDP lawmaker trailing just a step behind.
In all of their previous battles — aside from 2014, when Kaieda failed to get a spot — the runners-up have secured a ticket to parliament with a proportional representation seat.
According to a poll by the Asahi Shimbun conducted over the weekend, the race between the two will be extremely close.
Kaieda garnered support from around 90% of CDP supporters, as well as around half of independent voters. Meanwhile, Yamada had the backing of 70% of LDP supporters and a majority of votes from Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner. But she has only garnered around 20% from independent voters, according to the poll.
Their only real challenger appears to be opposition Nippon Ishin no Kai’s Shun Otokita, who according to the same poll has collected some portion of LDP votes.
The 41-year-old newcomer to the district said that a vote for him would be a vote against the “old politics” of slush funds and tax increases. He vowed to be a transparent and clean politician who invests in the new generation, such as by lowering social insurance costs and offering free education for all.
“I will create a new era of politics by investing thoroughly in future generations that will break down old politics,” he said on Oct. 15 in Tokyo. “We must break the politics that postpones issues until later, which has burdened the young generation.”
Voters in the Tokyo No.1 district are divided on who to vote for.
“(Kaieda) is a veteran with years of experience — that's what distinguishes him from the other candidates, and I want him to really pursue the problem of the LDP’s slush fund scandal,” said a woman in her 20s at his rally.
“I know that there are other new candidates out there but I think, at the end of the day, Kaieda is ideal — I want him to win this time,” she added.
A 55-year-old man residing in Shinjuku, who described himself as a “politics watcher,” said that “all I ask for is a change in the ruling party.”
“We need new politics,” he said.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.