Ishiba's foreign policy vision to face immediate tests as he takes helm

When Shigeru Ishiba steps into the Prime Minister’s Office this week as Japan’s new leader, he will be greeted immediately with the challenge of reining in escalating regional tensions.

From day one, Ishiba's foreign policy vision will face significant headwinds, including North Korean missile launches and Russian airspace incursions, as well as rising concerns over China’s threat to Taiwan.

Known for his defense expertise, Ishiba has said he will carry on many of the policies of his predecessor, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. But he is also widely expected to seek out ways to acknowledge the value of the U.S. alliance while striving to enhance Japan’s independence, including revising the Status of Forces Agreement with the U.S. and pursuing collective security arrangements with like-minded partners in Asia.

Here’s a look at how his approach to foreign policy with key allies, partners and rivals could unfold.

A more ‘equal’ Japan-U.S. alliance

Ishiba, 67, has long seen the value of the country’s security treaty with the U.S., calling it the "backbone of Japan's postwar political history." But, in a move that has raised eyebrows in Washington, he has also said that the alliance needs to be set on a more equal footing and “must evolve with the times.”

Seen as a disruptive figure within his Liberal Democratic Party, Ishiba wrote in a recent paper outlining his foreign policy plans that the current shape of the alliance requires the U.S. to defend Japan while Tokyo must provide bases, describing such an arrangement as an “asymmetrical bilateral treaty.”

Calling for changes, he has suggested revisions to the security treaty and the Status of Forces Agreement in order to establish a training base for the Self-Defense Forces in the United States and to allow the SDF to be stationed on the U.S. territory of Guam, “to strengthen the deterrence capabilities” of the allies.

“It is my mission to raise the Japan-U.S. alliance to the level of the U.S.-U.K. alliance,” he wrote in the paper, published last week by the Hudson Institute think tank. “To achieve this, Japan must have its own military strategy and become independent in terms of security until it is willing to share its own strategy and tactics on equal terms with the U.S.”

Observers say that this approach, if handled improperly, could create friction in the alliance — though Ishiba doubled down on these positions during an appearance on a Fuji TV program Sunday.

“Unless we take the initiative, the Japan-U.S. alliance will not become stronger,” he said.

China and an ‘Asian NATO’

China — which repeatedly sent military ships and aircraft into or near Japanese waters and airspace during the runup to Ishiba’s victory in Friday’s LDP presidential election — presents possibly the most vexing issue for the soon-to-be prime minister.

The question of how best to deter the military powerhouse next door from provocative moves — while maintaining and even building up economic ties — will be one of his top foreign policy agenda items.

Ishiba, like Kishida, has linked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the situation of democratic Taiwan, saying that “Ukraine today will be Asia tomorrow” without a drastic rethink of the regional security architecture.

“Replacing Russia with China and Ukraine with Taiwan, the absence of a collective self-defense system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defense,” he wrote in the policy paper. “Under these circumstances, in order for the Western allies to deter China, the creation of an Asian version of NATO is essential.”

China views Taiwan as “the core of its core issues,” and calls the self-ruled island a renegade province that must be united with the mainland, by force if necessary.

Ishiba — who visited Taiwan last month for meetings with top officials, including the island’s president, and has said an emergency over Taiwan is an emergency for Japan, has still somehow managed to keep Beijing from spewing fiery criticism of his looming administration.

China, which has slammed the concept of an “Asian NATO” in the past, has so far been relatively muted im response to Ishiba’s ideas, with the country's Foreign Ministry offering only a boilerplate reaction to his election.

Maintaining momentum with Seoul

When it comes to Japan’s historically fraught relationship with South Korea, Ishiba has also signaled that he will continue to build on Kishida’s moves to revitalize bilateral and trilateral ties with Seoul — especially in the security sphere.

Ishiba has in past interviews espoused a comparatively more dovish approach to the neighbors’ relationship, stressing the need for understanding of Seoul’s positions and emphasizing the importance of its alliance with Washington and the need for Tokyo to cement trilateral security ties with the two.

In the Hudson Institute paper, he praised the “institutionalized” security relationship, pointing to the “many frameworks, including regular summit meetings, joint training and information sharing,” which he said have taken the “bilateral alliances closer to a real ‘trilateral alliance.’”

For its part, Seoul has welcomed Ishiba’s ascension, pledging to continue its cooperation with Japan's incoming government in order to maintain "positive momentum.”

With some analysts saying that North Korea could deliver an “October surprise” — possibly a nuclear test or long-range missile launch over Japan — ahead of the U.S. presidential election, Tokyo-Seoul ties under Ishiba are likely to be tested in the coming weeks and months.

ASEAN and ‘minilaterals’

In a sign of the importance he places on Asia’s already-established regional security architecture, Ishiba said on an NHK program Sunday that he hoped to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit meetings in Laos in early October — even if that meant being outside of Japan during the runup to a possible snap election the same month.

Ishiba has said that ASEAN, as well as other multilateral and so-called minilateral frameworks, such as the burgeoning U.S.-Japan-Philippines security tie-up, could help lay the foundations for his Asian NATO vision.