With ship collisions, rammings and the use of flares and water cannons, a new flash point has emerged in the territorial and maritime disputes between China and the Philippines: Sabina Shoal.
In recent weeks, clashes between the countries’ vessels have become more frequent and intense as the two sides vie for control over the disputed South China Sea atoll, located about 110 nautical miles (204 kilometers) from the Philippine shoreline, well within the country’s exclusive economic zone.
But Beijing has long disputed this and in recent months amassed what Manila described as an “excessive force” of 40 naval and coast guard vessels in the area to, among other things, prevent the Philippines from resupplying one of its coast guard vessels, the BRP Teresa Magbanua. The move comes amid growing suspicions on both sides that the other may seek to take control of and build structures on a fishing atoll in one of the world’s busiest waterways.
Beijing’s decision to block access to the Philippine ship has not only resulted in Manila being unable to carry out resupply missions by sea, it has also led to several vessels being damaged as a result of rammings and China’s use of water cannons.
The escalating situation there now threatens to undo efforts to lower tensions at another hot spot: Second Thomas Shoal, which hosts a Philippine garrison atop a dilapidated warship that Manila deliberately grounded in 1999 to assert sovereignty claims.
“That these provocative and dangerous actions were made in the space of only a week is alarming, and calls into question China’s supposed commitment to de-escalate the situation in the area and create a conducive environment for dialogue and consultation,” the Philippines’ National Maritime Council said Monday in a statement.
In July, the two sides agreed to allow resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal garrison for purely humanitarian purposes, enabling Manila to provide its contingent with food and medical supplies but not military equipment or construction materials.
But with Manila and Beijing often talking past each other and with mutual distrust rising, China says that the Philippines’ actions around Sabina Shoal, particularly the continuous presence of the BRP Teresa Magbanua since April — reportedly as part of an extended patrol — suggest it is seeking to establish a long-term presence there.
Manila has vehemently rejected the allegation as “completely unfounded.”
Chinese state-run media reports even claim the Philippines may be attempting to “construct a forward deployment base” at the atoll, which is known as Xianbin Reef in China and Escoda Shoal in the Philippines.
“The Philippines' intention is very clear: to further expand the established fact of expanding its occupation of the Xianbin Jiao, upgrade the scale of its semi-permanent floating platform, and in effect build a ‘semi-grounded’ forward deployment base,” Yang Xiao, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Strategy Studies under the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times earlier this month.
A possible reason, experts say, is that a permanent presence on Sabina Shoal could serve as a staging post to resupply Philippine troops at Second Thomas Shoal, which is only about 35 nautical miles (about 65 km) west in the Spratly Island chain.
The Philippine government, which has vowed not to give up “an inch of territory” in its disputes with China, has slammed Beijing’s actions as “aggressive, illegal” and “destabilizing for regional peace and security,” as both sides exchange blame over the spate of clashes.
Manila has also accused the Chinese leadership of disregarding the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, of which it is a signatory, as well as a July 2016 international court ruling invalidating most of China’s maritime claims in the area.
Under its so-called nine-dash line — submitted to the United Nations in 2009 — Beijing lays claim to some 90% of the South China Sea.
Philippine actions around Sabina Shoal, it has said, “seriously infringe on China’s sovereignty and violate the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.”
But the rising number of flare-ups with Manila have also drawn growing regional and global attention, making it more difficult for Beijing to follow its preferred approach of solving these disputes bilaterally.
Indeed, the latest incidents at Sabina Shoal are not only worsening Sino-Philippine ties, but also helping internationalize an issue that could escalate into a larger crisis, including one that draws in the United States, Manila’s defense treaty ally, as well as regional partners such as Japan and Australia.
Highlighting Beijing’s actions has been one of the key pillars of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s strategy in the resource-rich waterway, while strong criticism has also come from Washington and Tokyo, with Kazuya Endo, Japan’s ambassador to the Philippines, calling the latest developments “unacceptable.”
“Any harassment and actions which increase tensions or obstruct freedom of navigation are not tolerated. Upholding a rules-based international order and adhering to commitments must prevail,” he wrote.
Some argue that Manila’s assertiveness under Marcos has likely been emboldened by assurances from the U.S. that their 1951 mutual defense treaty applies to “armed attacks on either nation's armed forces or public vessels anywhere in the South China Sea.”
Indeed, both Washington and Tokyo have been rapidly expanding defense ties with Manila to not only enhance the countries’ own military capabilities but also bolster what the Pentagon calls “collective capacity.”
Last month the United States unlocked an “unprecedented” $500 million in security assistance for the Philippines, while Tokyo signed a visiting-forces agreement with Manila, paving the way for greater bilateral and multilateral defense cooperation.
That said, Marcos is also looking beyond traditional regional partners to bolster his country’s defense posture — a defense-networking strategy that was on full display earlier this month when German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced plans to conclude a defense pact with the Philippines to expand cooperation into new areas.
Expected to be signed before the end of this year, the agreement will facilitate joint military training activities and weapon sales, with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro quoted as saying that Manila is looking to engage Berlin as a “possible supplier” of military systems.
Indeed, the upcoming deal with Germany will only be the latest with a Western partner as the Philippines has already signed pacts with the European Union, Britain and Australia while aiming to clinch visiting-forces agreements with Canada, France and New Zealand.
While the growing number of defense deals could give Manila one of the most robust security networks in Asia, experts agree that the increasing number of extra-regional players also raises the global stakes in these regional disputes.
While the strategy is largely aimed at deterring and counterbalancing an increasingly powerful China, an overreliance on deterrence could also have the opposite effect.
Analysts warn that pushing too hard could also create a security dilemma where each side feels compelled to enhance its military capabilities, fostering an arms race and heightening the risk of conflict.
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