Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plan to unveil a “new vision” for cooperation when their leaders meet in Tokyo this weekend for a commemorative gathering as Japan seeks to align the 10-member bloc with its strategy for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” amid concerns over China's growing assertiveness.
The three-day special leaders’ summit, meant to mark 50 years of bilateral relations, will see the two sides launch a wide range of cooperation initiatives in the diplomatic, security, economic, cultural and social fields.
Co-chaired by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Indonesian President Joko Widodo, the gathering is expected to result in both a joint statement and an implementation plan underlining three main cooperation pillars: Regional peace and stability, people-to-people exchanges and the “co-creation” of a future economy and society, the latter of which will prioritize areas such as supply chains, sustainability, digitization and renewable energies.
To highlight the importance of reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to greener energy sources in one of the world’s fastest-growing economic regions, the leaders will also hold a separate meeting Monday under the Asia Zero Emission Community framework, a decarbonization initiative launched by Japan.
“The summit's focus on decarbonization, digitization and regional security highlights how Japan’s relations with ASEAN have shifted over the past five decades of diplomatic relations,” said Sebastian Maslow, a Japan security expert and lecturer at Sendai Shirayuri Women's College.
While Tokyo was mainly a source of economic aid, investments and regional production networks, relations have become increasingly balanced and multidimensional in recent years. Japan is now increasingly seen as a critical partner for strengthening regional security, especially as several Southeast Asian states are embroiled in maritime and territorial disputes with China.
“While Japan was the stronger economic power in the past, this is changing with an economically ascendant ASEAN,” said Bhubhindar Singh, an associate professor at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).
Given Japan’s economic slowdown and a range of domestic challenges, the bloc has become central to sustaining economic growth and supporting the current regional order, he added.
Besides co-chairing the event, Kishida will use the opportunity to hold bilateral summits with ASEAN leaders, although this will not include Myanmar as the country’s military rulers were not invited. That said, East Timor will take part as an observer as ASEAN agreed in principle last year to admit the country as its 11th member.
The commemorative event, which is also aimed at taking stock of relations and enhancing trust, was preceded by a summit held in September that saw the two sides elevate ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” — an indication of the growing maturity of the relationship.
It also saw Tokyo unveil the “Japan-ASEAN Comprehensive Connectivity Initiative” — a series of steps designed to expand cooperation in several key areas, including transportation infrastructure development, supply chain resilience as well as digital and maritime connectivity.
The upcoming summit also follows a diplomatic push by Japan designed to deepen bilateral relations with several Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines — a push that experts say is increasingly driven by geopolitical considerations resulting from China’s rapid rise.
Kei Koga, an associate professor at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said that China’s growing economic and political clout in the region has not only led to an intensifying economic tug-of-war with Japan but also a competition over the rules and norms that will shape the future regional order, both in East Asia and beyond.
Koga says that Japan’s overall strategic objective is to strengthen ties with all ASEAN member states so as to prevent them from becoming “overly dependent on and taking sides with countries challenging the existing international order, including China, the region’s largest trading partner."
In other words, Tokyo sees the maintenance of its economic, diplomatic and, more recently, security influence in the region as key to upholding its own national interests and competing effectively with Beijing.
One of the key takeaways from the summit, which is expected to be rich in symbolism, will reportedly be a commitment to cooperate more closely on cyber- and maritime security while boosting maritime capacity building.
By providing training programs and coast guard vessels, Japan has already been helping Southeast Asian countries enhance their maritime law enforcement capabilities. And Japanese regional security assistance is only expected to grow as Tokyo implements a recently launched military aid framework, of which the Philippines will be the first beneficiary.
There are several reasons behind Tokyo’s strategy.
Southeast Asia is crucial for Japan’s economic and national security. Because of its strategic location the region is also key for the flow of energy imports from the Middle East, meaning that disputed waterways such as the South China Sea fall within Japan’s strategic interests.
This makes ASEAN a central pillar in Tokyo’s security strategy and its approach to maintaining the current international order.
“Japan wants to keep the South China Sea free from Chinese control to, among other things, secure shipments of energy and other critical supplies," said Nate Fischler, an Asia-Pacific analyst at geopolitics and intelligence firm RANE.
This requires helping ASEAN countries defend their maritime claims from an increasingly assertive China both through economic means and, increasingly, military means, he added.
Indeed, experts fear it would be extremely difficult for Japan to maintain the existing international order should the region fall under China’s sphere of influence.
In this context building stronger bilateral ties will signal that Japan and ASEAN share a common interest in preserving the status quo in Southeast Asia, said Maslow.
For Japan, this means integrating ASEAN into its overall framework of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific to counterbalance Beijing’s growing footprint in this region, he added.
Despite this, it will be very difficult for Tokyo to pull the entire bloc closer to the Western-aligned world.
While there are notable exceptions, Southeast Asian countries do not want to choose sides, noted Brian Harding, from the United States Institute of Peace.
“They want as many outside powers as possible engaged in the region, while also seeking to shape their engagement through ASEAN-based regional organizations.”
Against this backdrop it is possible that the bloc will also seek similar arrangements with China, not only for the additional economic benefits but also to appease Beijing’s concerns that ASEAN may be moving into a rival camp.
“Staying nonaligned also contributes to compeling China and Japan to compete economically within Southeast Asia, itself a boon to local economies,” said Fischler.
Tokyo is aware of this, which is why it is likely to pursue a more limited geostrategic goal.
“Japan will rather aim to empower ASEAN to maintain its regional autonomy so that it can resist pressures from external actors and retain a range of geopolitical choices,” Koga said.
The upcoming summit will showcase that Japan-ASEAN relations are on a positive trajectory. But to help ties flourish, it will be important to move past the “taking sides” argument, noted RSIS’s’ Singh.
“Both should focus on promoting economic prosperity and development for the region and beyond,” he said.
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