U.S. President Joe Biden sought to reaffirm Washington’s commitment to Pacific island nations Monday as he again hosted leaders from the region at the White House, part of a charm offensive aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the strategically important area.
Initiatives unveiled at the summit, which build upon Washington’s first-ever U.S. Pacific Partnership Strategy, range from expanding Washington’s diplomatic footprint in the region to providing about $200 million in extra aid for new climate, security and economic projects.
The summit appeared to check at least some of the boxes for Pacific island nations following criticism that the U.S. was not doing enough to support countries in the region and as China looks to fill any gaps.
“The United States appears to finally be listening to the needs of the Pacific islands,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist at the U.S.-based Rand Corp. think tank. “Whether it be climate change, connectivity, development assistance, or greater maritime awareness, the summit appeared to hit all the important ‘asks’ from the Pacific islands” with a host of new programs and initiatives, he added.
But questions remain over whether the new initiatives will be enough to prevent some of these countries from sliding further into China’s orbit as they remain focused on addressing critical climate-change issues while trying to uphold their “friends to all, enemies to none” foreign policy dictum.
Still, Biden looked to inject fresh confidence into the U.S. push. “Like our forebears during World War II, we know that a great deal of the history of our world will be written across the Pacific over the coming years,” he told leaders and representatives of the 18-member Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), who gathered at the White House for the second summit of this kind.
The U.S. and its regional allies have been stepping up engagement with these countries amid concerns about Beijing’s expanding footprint in the region. There is “no question” that China’s regional assertiveness and influence has been a factor that “requires us to sustain our strategic focus,” a senior Biden administration official said before the summit, adding that Washington was intent on showing Pacific island countries that the U.S. and like-minded partners can provide “viable alternatives” for them.
The past few years have seen an uptick in Chinese economic and diplomatic activities in the region, including a controversial security deal last year with the Solomon Islands, which now appears to be drifting toward China.
In an apparent sign of Beijing’s pull — and a snub of the U.S. — the Solomons’ prime minister, who refused to sign the U.S. Pacific Partnership Strategy last year, did not attend Monday’s summit, despite joining last week’s United Nations General Assembly in New York.
“This fits into a broader pattern of his government being generally wary of U.S. re-engagement in the Pacific, for example denying permission for U.S. Coast Guard assets to dock in August 2022, while still maintaining close ties with more established Western partners like Australia,” said Henry Storey, an Australia-based political risk analyst.
To boost Washington’s engagement with the region, one of Biden’s first steps Monday was to announce the establishment of formal diplomatic ties with two countries in the region— Niue and the Cook Islands — as well as plans to open an embassy in Vanuatu early next year.
The administration also unveiled initiatives to boost trade ties and economic development, including a new microfinance facility for small business and multimillion-dollar infrastructure projects such as an undersea cable project to strengthen internet connectivity.
But for most of these countries, climate change is their most pressing threat, since some remain at risk of becoming uninhabitable in the coming decades due to rising sea levels. To help tackle the issue, Washington pledged more than $20 million in new initiatives, some of which is subject to congressional approval.
Experts say that Washington’s underlying aim for the meeting was to promote both itself and its allies as the top security partners in the region.
For instance, Biden announced the deployment of a U.S. Coast Guard cutter before the end of this year to serve as the first U.S. vessel dedicated to training with Pacific island nations. He also spoke of plans to provide these islands with $11.4 million worth of maritime domain awareness technology.
Moreover, the White House revealed that it is “forging ahead” with a renegotiation of its Compact of Free Association security agreement with the Marshall Islands. The current terms expire Saturday.
While Washington in May renewed similar agreements with Palau and Micronesia — and its plans to upgrade military facilities there — it has yet to do so with the Marshall Islands, which wants more funds to deal with the legacy of the U.S. nuclear testing program there in the 1940s and 1950s.
In addition to climate change mitigation, economic development and fisheries protection, consistency in Washington’s commitments has been at the top of leaders’ wish lists, with Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown calling on the U.S. not to restrict its engagement merely to annual summits. “It must be yearlong efforts working to an agreed plan of action and supported by requisite resources to deliver transformative actions on the ground,” he said.
Meg Keen, director of Pacific Island Programs at Australia's Lowy Institute think tank, said that while the summit showed Washington’s ongoing commitment, Pacific countries are still waiting for funding to be released for many commitments announced at the 2022 summit.
In one example, Biden committed last year to spending $810 million in expanded programs to aid the Pacific islands, but these funds have yet to be approved by Congress.
Washington’s follow-through on these and other promises will ultimately determine the effectiveness of the latest summit in the long-run, particularly as some initiatives could be walked back due to lack of funding.
“Continued engagement and commitment on what was agreed upon, and a continuing open-ear to the needs of these islands — as opposed to geopolitical competition — is going to determine how much influence the U.S. can secure in the region,” Hornung said. Keen, meanwhile, is of the view that the Pacific island nations would still like to see more climate action — and less red-carpet diplomacy.
At the same time, while these nations welcome U.S. re-engagement, this doesn’t necessarily mean they will stop engaging with China. Papua New Guinea, for example, has pursued a free trade agreement with China, despite having just concluded a defense cooperation deal with the U.S.
The main reason Pacific states are hedging their bets is the “fundamental mismatch” in priorities between these countries and the U.S., said Storey. Although Washington may publicly claim otherwise, he added, its primary interest in the region is laser-focused on security. Highlighting this focus, the U.S. is reportedly discussing the permanent deployment of Patriot air-defense missiles with Palau, as the island fears it could be targeted by China in a conflict as it prepares to host U.S. over-the-horizon radar systems in 2026.
Most Pacific states, however, are concerned with their own development needs, including climate change. For them, issues like tensions over Taiwan are not particularly relevant.
“Most of these leaders are very chary of being dragged overtly into a geostrategic tussle over influence,” said Richard Herr, a Pacific islands expert at the University of Tasmania in Australia.
“They are naturally pleased to have Washington exhibiting more interest and support for the PIF’s own agenda, but are less willing to have these viewed in transactional terms, where their acceptance of U.S. support is directly tied to Pacific endorsement of broader anti-China security objectives.”
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