Rishi Sunak’s election strategists can see their nightmare scenario playing out right in front of them.

The British prime minister’s governing Conservatives were wounded in two places in recent local elections: Working-class voters in the north of England returned to the opposition Labour Party, while disillusioned middle classes in the south deserted them for the Liberal Democrats.

Conservative ministers and advisers, speaking on condition of anonymity discussing private concerns, said they fear this is the post-Brexit "realignment” of voters in England coming back to bite them. If repeated at a general election, due in January 2025 at the latest, the result would be stark: a Labour landslide.