When Group of Seven leaders gather in Hiroshima next week, cobbling together a durable consensus on how to engage with China on common global concerns — while still deterring its increasingly assertive steps against Taiwan and in the South and East China seas — will be a significant test of the grouping’s mettle.
Last month, G7 foreign ministers agreed on the importance of working with Beijing on issues such as climate change and global health, but also expressed concerns over a range of issues, from the transparency of China’s nuclear arsenal to alleged economic coercion and supply chain dominance.
However — while publicly touting unity on the issue — tensions over how best to strategically manage China’s rise will continue to be an elephant in the room for the G7 after rifts among leaders emerged in the days ahead of the top diplomats’ meeting in April.
Here’s a look at how the leaders are expected to grapple with the issue when they meet from May 19 to 21.
China’s growing assertiveness toward Taiwan
Discussions over the fate of self-ruled Taiwan will feature heavily at the summit. China stepped up its military and diplomatic warnings toward the island after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s official visit to the island last year. Increased military activity around the island has become a new normal for cross-strait relations, stoking global concerns over the possibility of conflict.
In a joint statement released after G7 foreign ministers meeting last month in Karuizawa, Nagano Prefecture, the group urged Beijing “abstain from threats, coercion, intimidation, or the use of force,” in an apparent reference to China’s moves near Taiwan. That statement came just over a week after China wrapped up large-scale military training designed to simulate strikes and a blockade of the democratic island, following President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California earlier that month.
Next week's meeting is expected to focus on "the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait" and the "peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues." The foreign ministers said in April that they reject any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion.
Beijing views Taiwan, which has been governed by a separate government since the end of the Chinese civil war, as a breakaway province that should be united with the mainland, by force if necessary. Any discussion of the issue will be sure to anger Beijing.
East and South China seas dispute
In the disputed South China Sea, tensions have boiled for decades, with the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia and China all holding competing claims.
China’s claims to the strategic waterway are vast, with its so-called nine-dash line encompassing about 90% of the 3.5 million square kilometer sea and even reaching waters close to Indonesia and Malaysia.
Although an international tribunal dismissed Beijing’s claims to much of the South China Sea, China dismissed the ruling and has continued to fortify what are widely seen as military outposts in the waterway, including on islets claimed by other nations.
The South China Sea has been the scene of numerous provocative encounters between Chinese government and military vessels and those of other nations touting freedom of navigation. The incidents have stoked fears of an accident or miscalculation that could trigger a broader conflict.
G7 diplomats have reaffirmed that China's sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea have “no legal basis” and are expected to reiterate this when the leaders meet.
The G7 leaders are also expected to tout the importance of the “rule of law” and the importance of the rules-based international order in crafting a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” where shared principles such as sovereignty, territorial integrity and peaceful resolution of disputes are upheld.
G7 countries have repeatedly used the phrasing to criticize issues affecting members’ interests, including the invasion of Ukraine, territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the possibility of a crisis over Taiwan.
Supply chain dependency on China
G7 finance chiefs have repeatedly touted the need to diversify supply chains and improve their efficiency and resilience amid concerns of overreliance on China.
Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has said the G7 considers the current high concentration of supply chains in China to be “undesirable,” and in April the finance chiefs pledged to give low- and middle-income nations bigger roles in supply chains in order to help them become more resilient.
G7 economies have also reportedly been considering calling for the creation of groupwide supply chain networks for strategically important goods that are vital to economic security — a topic deemed important by Japan — to prevent economic coercion.
Aiming for stable supply chains amid crises such as the Ukraine war and a potential crisis over Taiwan, the idea would be to focus on creating routes and inventories for steady supplies of microchips, rare earth minerals and other commodities.
Over 60% of the world's semiconductors, including over 90% of the most sophisticated ones, are produced in Taiwan. Its dominance of chip production makes it strategically important and makes supply chains more vulnerable to being disrupted if there is a crisis.
But G7 countries will need to balance this with their other economic interests, since China is a top trading partner to many of them.
Ultimately, it remains unclear how far G7 leaders will be willing to go to rein in concerns among some members over China’s security and economic moves, with the three days of talks being a crucial moment that could help define the grouping’s stance toward Beijing going forward.
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