China’s peace proposal for Ukraine war light on details

China has called for a cease-fire in Ukraine and the resumption of peace talks in a 12-point position paper released Friday — the anniversary of Russia’s invasion — as Beijing seeks to portray itself as a neutral actor on the international stage, despite its growing ties with Moscow.

“All parties should support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming direct dialogue as quickly as possible, so as to gradually deescalate the situation and ultimately reach a comprehensive ceasefire,” Beijing said, stressing the need to “prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control.”

The paper, which outlines broad principles rather than a specific peace proposal, reiterates many of the points China has raised in recent months, including in its newly unveiled Global Security Initiative. Among these are the importance of respecting the sovereignty of all countries, stopping unilateral sanctions, preventing the use of nuclear weapons and keeping nuclear power plants safe.

Beijing also called for the safe provision of humanitarian aid, protecting civilians and prisoners of war, facilitating grain exports, keeping industrial and supply chains stable and promoting postwar reconstruction.

However, the paper provides little detail on what China itself intends to do, including how it aims to get Russia to comply, casting doubts on whether Beijing's efforts to mediate will go beyond rhetoric.

Furthermore, some of the language used in the document is implicitly critical of the United States and includes denunciations such as "double standards," "Cold War mentality," "long-arm jurisdiction" and "fanning the flames," prompting experts to raise questions about the plan’s chances of success.

“The statement does not offer specific suggestions on achieving a cease-fire or ending the war,” said Tong Zhao, a China expert and senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Neither does it assign responsibility to Russia for initiating or prolonging the conflict.”

This, he said, demonstrates China's continuing effort to achieve two goals at the same time: preserving its strategic cooperation with Russia while improving relations with other third-party countries, including those in Europe. However, these objectives place China “in an impossible position to effectively mediate between Moscow and Kyiv,” he added.

While Beijing has not formally endorsed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has not condemned it either: a position that has angered many Western countries.

Observers have also questioned China’s own approach toward some of the principles raised in the paper.

“China’s call against ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ is interesting given allegations that Beijing is trying to enforce its law on its citizens overseas, including forcing or kidnapping them back to China,” said Ian Chong, a professor at the National University of Singapore.

The same applies to Beijing’s call to refrain from using economic sanctions not authorized by the United Nations. This, Chong indicated, sits awkwardly in light of Beijing’s own use of economic pressure against countries such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, Lithuania and Norway, among others.

“Then there are questions about Beijing’s handling of U.N. sanctions toward countries like North Korea and Iran,” he added.

But perhaps the greatest issue is that the paper doesn’t mention what would be needed to get Russia to stop the war.

“Given that the main actor continuing to persecute the war is Russia, Moscow needs substantial reason to change its course of action, either from the imposition of costs or the offering of benefits,” Chong said.

The document does not list these, so it is unclear what Beijing is offering to incentivize changes in Russian behavior, he added.

Beijing’s diplomatic initiative comes a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that while he had not seen China’s peace proposal, it would be in his country’s interests for Chinese and Ukrainian representatives to meet.

"The fact that China has started talking about Ukraine and certain signals have been sent is, in general, very good,” he said, adding that Kyiv will draw its conclusions “after we see the specifics of what they offer.”

The paper’s release comes two days after China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, visited Russia to discuss strengthening bilateral economic and strategic ties and China’s intention to mediate in the conflict. A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson told reporters Wednesday that Moscow welcomed China’s readiness to play “a positive role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis,” adding that the two countries’ positions on the most pressing international issues “coincide or are close.”

Beijing's attempts to mediate a peace deal and Wang's Moscow visit have largely been met with skepticism in the West, particularly in Washington, where U.S. State Department Spokesman Ned Price said Thursday that China seeks to have it both ways.

“(Beijing) seeks to present this air of neutrality, purport to not take a side in Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine, while at the same time lending important forms of support to Russia’s war,” Price said in a briefing, alluding to U.S. claims that China has not only provided nonlethal, “dual-use type” support to Russia but is only considering supplying weapons and munitions.

Citing unnamed sources, the German news magazine Der Spiegel reported Wednesday that Beijing is supplying Russia with commercially available drones with surveillance capabilities, and providing satellite imagery of the combat zone. The two sides are also said to be negotiating the purchase of 100 strike drones, which could be delivered as soon as April, according to the report.

China’ economic, diplomatic, political and messaging assistance “gives us a great a deal of pause when we hear reports that the (People’s Republic of China) is planning to present I’m sure what they will advertise as an impartial peace proposal,” said Price, pointing out that while Wang has already visited Russia, he has yet to visit Kyiv to discuss China’s ideas for a peace proposal.

At the same time, he expressed hope that all countries with a relationship with Russia will use that leverage and influence to push Moscow to end the war. “The PRC is in a position to do that in ways that we just aren’t.” Beijing is believed to be in a unique position to influence Moscow’s position on the war, given Russia’s growing economic and political reliance on China.

Experts argue that China’s position paper may be an effort by President Xi Jinping to make his mark on the global stage, having exited the relative isolation of the country’s “COVID-zero” policies.

“Such a move may be intended to shore up Beijing’s leading status globally and show how it can be a major actor shaping peace and stability around the world,” Chong said.